CPI comes in hotter than expected; bets on an October rate hike double
- September CPI rose 3.7% year over year, while core CPI came in at 2.6%—both above expectations. Bets on a 25-basis-point hike in October climbed from 20% to 40%.
- The rate decision is on October 28, just six days before the November 3 midterm elections. Warsh’s remarks before the quiet period are the only signal of his stance we can read.
Higher rate-hike odds drain liquidity from risk assets, making rallies more likely to be capped. A short-term pullback to test support is more likely than a straight breakout. Before the rate decision, are you reducing positions to avoid volatility, or betting that Warsh will turn dovish during this six-day window?
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- September CPI rose 3.7% year over year, while core CPI came in at 2.6%—both above expectations. Bets on a 25-basis-point hike in October climbed from 20% to 40%.
- The rate decision is on October 28, just six days before the November 3 midterm elections. Warsh’s remarks before the quiet period are the only signal of his stance we can read.
Higher rate-hike odds drain liquidity from risk assets, making rallies more likely to be capped. A short-term pullback to test support is more likely than a straight breakout. Before the rate decision, are you reducing positions to avoid volatility, or betting that Warsh will turn dovish during this six-day window?
$BTC $ETH $SOL