TSMC expects to sell over 10% more in Q4

TSMC’s third-quarter sales exceeded its original guidance, and it expects further growth in the fourth quarter. I’m leaning toward a rebound in U.S.-listed TSM over the coming week. I’m pleased to see revenue continue to grow at this already enormous scale.

The third-quarter revenue announced today was $46.72 billion, above the high end of the company’s original guidance of $45.8 billion. The company expects $52.3 billion to $54.3 billion in the fourth quarter, or $53.3 billion at the midpoint—about 14% more than in the third quarter. This is still just the company’s forecast; it will become actual revenue only if deliveries come through.

Before the earnings report, U.S.-listed TSM had already retreated to around $430. The report has yet to be put to the test during regular U.S. trading hours. U.S. September PPI is also due at 8:30 tonight, and if the data heightens market concerns that interest rates may not come down, it could weigh on tech stocks. If the stock continues to fall after the report, I’ll have to reconsider my call for a rebound this week.

The company said strong demand for advanced process technologies will continue to support the fourth quarter, and 2-nanometer production will keep ramping up. In the third quarter, 2-nanometer chips already accounted for 8% of wafer revenue, up from just 3% the previous quarter. Shipments of the new process are beginning to pick up.

But the third-quarter gross margin fell to 66.4% from 67.7% the previous quarter. The company explained that the decline was mainly due to the initial ramp-up of 2-nanometer production, so a falling gross margin alone shouldn’t be taken as proof that demand is weakening. The fourth-quarter gross margin guidance is 65% to 67%, still below the previous quarter’s 67.7%. Revenue is growing, but margins haven’t caught up yet—which is a bit of a disappointment.

#台积电 #美股 #Earnings