Three ingredients for high-probability setups (coins worth watching closely now)
Continuation breakouts and bottom reversals: Oversold reversals in ETH and SOL (wait for a 4h close back above EMA20), and a BTC cup-and-handle breakout (wait for a move above 85000).
Hot-money inflows and altseason: BTC dominance is still rising, so altseason hasn’t truly begun. But $RNDR and $PYTH , which have independent narratives, have already strengthened ahead of their sectors and are sector leaders.
Liquidity easing and stablecoin inflows: Net increases in the market caps of USDT and USDC, together with a weakening DXY, would signal a broad market rally. After the CPI release, rate expectations are rising, and there’s no clear sign of liquidity easing yet—so it’s not time to take large positions.
High-probability bearish setups (shorts)
The easiest short candidates right now are SOL (down 15.39% over 2h; rallies fizzle at EMA20), $AVAX (bearish structure), $LINK (below 12, eyeing 11), and $WAL /$GLMR/$AVA, which have pulled back after recent sharp rallies. The approach is the same across the board: with the 4h trend bearish, wait for a low-volume rally to resistance (EMA20 or a previous high) to fizzle, then short on a second break to a new low. Place the stop above the rally high. Never short a minor pullback in an uptrend.
Continuation breakouts and bottom reversals: Oversold reversals in ETH and SOL (wait for a 4h close back above EMA20), and a BTC cup-and-handle breakout (wait for a move above 85000).
Hot-money inflows and altseason: BTC dominance is still rising, so altseason hasn’t truly begun. But $RNDR and $PYTH , which have independent narratives, have already strengthened ahead of their sectors and are sector leaders.
Liquidity easing and stablecoin inflows: Net increases in the market caps of USDT and USDC, together with a weakening DXY, would signal a broad market rally. After the CPI release, rate expectations are rising, and there’s no clear sign of liquidity easing yet—so it’s not time to take large positions.
High-probability bearish setups (shorts)
The easiest short candidates right now are SOL (down 15.39% over 2h; rallies fizzle at EMA20), $AVAX (bearish structure), $LINK (below 12, eyeing 11), and $WAL /$GLMR/$AVA, which have pulled back after recent sharp rallies. The approach is the same across the board: with the 4h trend bearish, wait for a low-volume rally to resistance (EMA20 or a previous high) to fizzle, then short on a second break to a new low. Place the stop above the rally high. Never short a minor pullback in an uptrend.