Standard Chartered has pushed back its forecast for the stablecoin market to reach $2 trillion from 2028 to 2030, mainly because stablecoin supply growth has stalled this year. However, the bank maintained its long-term forecast of a $2 trillion market, saying the current slowdown in growth is mainly due to weak activity in the crypto market rather than a structural shift in the industry's development.

Stablecoin supply growth stalls, while on-chain transaction activity continues to rise

Geoffrey Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, said in a report published Wednesday that the total supply of stablecoins has remained broadly between $300 billion and $320 billion over the past 12 months, and currently stands at around $309 billion. Although supply growth has slowed, stablecoin supply has also remained flat or even declined during previous crypto market downturns, before returning to growth as markets recovered.

Kendrick notes that the stablecoin market is currently showing a divergence: supply growth has stalled, while real-world usage continues to rise. According to the report, the gross value of stablecoin transfers on-chain hit a monthly record of $19 trillion in May this year. Average monthly transaction volume so far this year is just under $10 trillion, a substantial increase from around $4 trillion per month in 2025.

Stablecoin velocity has also accelerated. This metric measures how many times each unit of stablecoin changes hands over a given period. Kendrick says average monthly stablecoin velocity has risen to about 30 this year, up from 15 in 2025. This suggests that existing stablecoins are being used more frequently for transactions and transfers, even though the market’s overall supply has not expanded significantly.

Usage patterns also differ among stablecoins. USDT’s monthly velocity has remained at around 7, while USDC’s has risen from 45 in 2025 to about 80 this year.

Kendrick attributes this to the different primary uses of the two stablecoins. Users in emerging markets are more likely to use USDT for dollar savings and as a store of value. USDC, by contrast, is used more for payments, financial transactions, and payment activity between AI agents, a use case that is still in its early stages.

Competition in the payments market intensifies as bank-issued models emerge as a new variable

Looking ahead, Standard Chartered believes that stablecoin payments and financial transactions in developed markets will be among the most competitive segments. Kendrick highlighted several projects that could challenge the existing market landscape, including Open USD (OUSD), Global Dollar Network (USDG), stablecoin infrastructure provider M^0, and the A+ Network, which plans to have multiple banks jointly issue a stablecoin.

OUSD and USDG represent different models for stablecoin partnerships and revenue sharing. M^0 provides the infrastructure needed to issue stablecoins, while A+ aims to let multiple banks use the same stablecoin network and retain the yield generated by reserve assets.

Kendrick told the media that the most competitive areas in the future will be transaction activity in developed markets and alternatives to traditional financial services. He expects different players to enter from the perspectives of trading platforms, underlying infrastructure, and multi-bank partnerships. How the yield from reserve assets is distributed will be a key factor in determining the market’s competitive outcome.

This means competition in the stablecoin market is no longer limited to issuance scale and circulation. It is increasingly extending to payment use cases, partnerships with financial institutions, and mechanisms for distributing returns on reserves.

The GENIUS Act emerges as a key regulatory factor in market growth

Regulatory policy remains the main risk to Standard Chartered’s forecast of a $2 trillion market. Kendrick says the market’s development will depend on whether other countries adopt stablecoin regulatory frameworks similar to the United States’ GENIUS Act, and on how the relevant rules affect stablecoin use.

The U.S. GENIUS Act is expected to take effect in January 2027. Kendrick believes that if regulators in other countries substantially follow the U.S. approach, it could alter USDT’s dominance in emerging markets and create more room for competition from bank-backed stablecoins and multi-issuer partnership models.

Overall, although Standard Chartered has pushed back its expected timeline for the stablecoin market to reach $2 trillion by two years, it has not lowered its long-term market-size forecast. As on-chain transaction activity increases, payment applications expand, and banks and fintech companies enter the market, stablecoins still have growth potential. However, the pace of actual growth will depend on a recovery in the cryptocurrency market, expansion in payment demand, and how regulatory frameworks are implemented across countries.

Source