$ORDI Current status: Current price 3.798, down 7.59% today and about 28% from the 5.29 peak. This is the weakest chart pattern of the six— the double top is confirmed (two rallies to 5.3/5.29, with bearish volume divergence), the 4.2–4.4 neckline has broken, MA7 has crossed below MA25, and today price also fell below the only rising average, MA99 (3.958). The daily chart has officially shifted into a bearish alignment.
Wildcard: The funding rate has turned negative (-0.00431%). Shorts are crowded, creating fuel for a short-squeeze rebound, so the directional uncertainty is higher than for ETH/SOL.
Key levels:
Support: 3.680 → 3.50–3.60 → 3.30–3.45 (confluence of the double-top measured-move target and the August pullback low)
Resistance: 3.958–4.00 (MA99; reclaiming it or not is the key test for bulls and bears) → 4.13 (MA7) → 4.49 (MA25) → 4.70 (neckline)
Scenario probabilities:
Rebound to 3.95–4.15 gets rejected, then price searches for a bottom around 3.3–3.6 — 40%
Short-squeeze recovery, reclaiming MA99/MA7 and returning to 4.49–4.70 — 30%
No rebound; direct move lower to 3.0–3.3 — 25%
Extreme collapse, retesting 2.7–3.0 — 5%
Wildcard: The funding rate has turned negative (-0.00431%). Shorts are crowded, creating fuel for a short-squeeze rebound, so the directional uncertainty is higher than for ETH/SOL.
Key levels:
Support: 3.680 → 3.50–3.60 → 3.30–3.45 (confluence of the double-top measured-move target and the August pullback low)
Resistance: 3.958–4.00 (MA99; reclaiming it or not is the key test for bulls and bears) → 4.13 (MA7) → 4.49 (MA25) → 4.70 (neckline)
Scenario probabilities:
Rebound to 3.95–4.15 gets rejected, then price searches for a bottom around 3.3–3.6 — 40%
Short-squeeze recovery, reclaiming MA99/MA7 and returning to 4.49–4.70 — 30%
No rebound; direct move lower to 3.0–3.3 — 25%
Extreme collapse, retesting 2.7–3.0 — 5%