【FIL/USDT Daily Review: Moving Averages Lost, but the Trend Referee Hasn’t Blown the Whistle Yet】10.15
I. What happened
FIL closed down 4.91% today at 1.0394, with a 7.3% range. The key point is simple: a single candlestick broke below both MA7 (1.117) and MA25 (1.076), disrupting the short-term bullish moving-average alignment.
II. How to read the structure
The uptrend structure since the August low of 0.6076 (higher lows and higher highs) has not yet been invalidated. Volume expanded noticeably during the main rally in late September, while pullback volume has continued to contract since the early-October peak at 1.28—a volume/price pattern more consistent with “profit-taking” than “panic selling.” Today’s loss of the moving averages looks more like a second retest after an incomplete change of hands at higher levels.
III. Key price levels
Support: 1.02 (intraday low) / 1.00 psychological level / 0.92–0.95 previous consolidation platform
Resistance: 1.076 (MA25) / 1.10–1.12 cluster of moving-average resistance / 1.20 / 1.28
IV. Three possible scenarios
① Successful retest: Volume contracts and price finds support at 1.00–1.02, then reclaims 1.10 → trend continues, with a target of 1.20+
② Deeper pullback: Closes below 1.00 → next level to watch is 0.95; MA99 (0.835 and rising rapidly) is the last line of defense for the medium-term trend
③ Sideways repair: Trades in a 1.00–1.12 range while waiting for the long-term moving averages to catch up before choosing a direction
V. My view
The trend is intact, but the current position is awkward. There’s no structural basis for chasing shorts, and no sign of a bottom to justify buying the dip. At times like this, the most valuable move is no move at all—leave the decision to the levels at 1.00 and 1.12.
$FIL #FILUSDT
(The above is my personal technical analysis record and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto markets are highly volatile; please manage risk strictly and DYOR.)
I. What happened
FIL closed down 4.91% today at 1.0394, with a 7.3% range. The key point is simple: a single candlestick broke below both MA7 (1.117) and MA25 (1.076), disrupting the short-term bullish moving-average alignment.
II. How to read the structure
The uptrend structure since the August low of 0.6076 (higher lows and higher highs) has not yet been invalidated. Volume expanded noticeably during the main rally in late September, while pullback volume has continued to contract since the early-October peak at 1.28—a volume/price pattern more consistent with “profit-taking” than “panic selling.” Today’s loss of the moving averages looks more like a second retest after an incomplete change of hands at higher levels.
III. Key price levels
Support: 1.02 (intraday low) / 1.00 psychological level / 0.92–0.95 previous consolidation platform
Resistance: 1.076 (MA25) / 1.10–1.12 cluster of moving-average resistance / 1.20 / 1.28
IV. Three possible scenarios
① Successful retest: Volume contracts and price finds support at 1.00–1.02, then reclaims 1.10 → trend continues, with a target of 1.20+
② Deeper pullback: Closes below 1.00 → next level to watch is 0.95; MA99 (0.835 and rising rapidly) is the last line of defense for the medium-term trend
③ Sideways repair: Trades in a 1.00–1.12 range while waiting for the long-term moving averages to catch up before choosing a direction
V. My view
The trend is intact, but the current position is awkward. There’s no structural basis for chasing shorts, and no sign of a bottom to justify buying the dip. At times like this, the most valuable move is no move at all—leave the decision to the levels at 1.00 and 1.12.
$FIL #FILUSDT
(The above is my personal technical analysis record and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto markets are highly volatile; please manage risk strictly and DYOR.)