$SOL Current status: Current price 102.11, down 2.05% today, about 18.3% below the peak of 124.99. MA7 (107.0) has crossed below MA25 (115.4), and the price is below both, signaling a short-term bearish trend; however, MA99 (94.1) is rising steeply, the high-volume breakout in August remains valid, and the sequence of higher lows is intact, so the medium-term uptrend structure remains sound.
Pattern: After forming a base at 65–80 from June to August, the price broke out on high volume (a textbook setup). In early October, it stalled at 118–122 and broke down. The measured-move downside target (below 105) was reached today. Volume has declined during the pullback since the breakdown, suggesting an orderly correction rather than panic selling.
Key levels:
Support: 100.5 (today’s low + round-number level) → 94–100 (confluence of MA99, the start of September’s sharp rally, and the platform’s upper boundary; a medium-term dividing line) → 88–92 → 75–80
Resistance: 107 (MA7) → 115 (MA25) → 118–122 → 124.99
Scenario probabilities:
Consolidation in the 94–115 range after finding support at 94–102 — 40%
Break below 94, extending the decline to 88–92 or even 75–80 — 30%
Hold above 100, recover and rebound, reclaim 107–115, then retest 118–125 — 25%
Extreme reversal, falling straight to 60–75 — 5%
Pattern: After forming a base at 65–80 from June to August, the price broke out on high volume (a textbook setup). In early October, it stalled at 118–122 and broke down. The measured-move downside target (below 105) was reached today. Volume has declined during the pullback since the breakdown, suggesting an orderly correction rather than panic selling.
Key levels:
Support: 100.5 (today’s low + round-number level) → 94–100 (confluence of MA99, the start of September’s sharp rally, and the platform’s upper boundary; a medium-term dividing line) → 88–92 → 75–80
Resistance: 107 (MA7) → 115 (MA25) → 118–122 → 124.99
Scenario probabilities:
Consolidation in the 94–115 range after finding support at 94–102 — 40%
Break below 94, extending the decline to 88–92 or even 75–80 — 30%
Hold above 100, recover and rebound, reclaim 107–115, then retest 118–125 — 25%
Extreme reversal, falling straight to 60–75 — 5%