$ETH Current status: Current price 2,357, down 2.62% today. The price has fallen below MA7 (2,464) and MA25 (2,620), with a death cross between MA7 and MA25 now effectively formed, turning the short-term moving-average setup bearish. However, the price remains above MA99 (2,263), so the framework of the medium-term uptrend that began at the June low of 1,503 remains intact.
Pattern: September–October saw a high-level double top with fading momentum (2,806 / 2,750). The neckline around 2,600 has been breached, and today's decline has largely met the measured-move target (below 2,400). Volume has remained moderate throughout the pullback, suggesting orderly profit-taking rather than panic selling.
Key levels:
Support: 2,313 (today's low) → 2,250–2,263 (confluence of MA99, the August base, and the starting point of the sharp rally; a key medium-term dividing line, only about 4% below the current price) → 2,050–2,150
Resistance: 2,428 → 2,464 (MA7) → 2,620 (MA25) → 2,806 (top)
Scenario probabilities:
Consolidation after stabilizing on a retest of 2,250–2,310 — 40%
A break below 2,250 confirms the double top and extends the decline to 2,050–2,150 — 30%
Rapidly reclaim MA7 and the September base, then rally toward 2,620–2,700 — 25%
In an extreme scenario, retest levels below 1,900 — 5%
Pattern: September–October saw a high-level double top with fading momentum (2,806 / 2,750). The neckline around 2,600 has been breached, and today's decline has largely met the measured-move target (below 2,400). Volume has remained moderate throughout the pullback, suggesting orderly profit-taking rather than panic selling.
Key levels:
Support: 2,313 (today's low) → 2,250–2,263 (confluence of MA99, the August base, and the starting point of the sharp rally; a key medium-term dividing line, only about 4% below the current price) → 2,050–2,150
Resistance: 2,428 → 2,464 (MA7) → 2,620 (MA25) → 2,806 (top)
Scenario probabilities:
Consolidation after stabilizing on a retest of 2,250–2,310 — 40%
A break below 2,250 confirms the double top and extends the decline to 2,050–2,150 — 30%
Rapidly reclaim MA7 and the September base, then rally toward 2,620–2,700 — 25%
In an extreme scenario, retest levels below 1,900 — 5%