BTC is stuck at $81,500: the ETF cost basis and liquidation zone have converged.
Glassnode data dated October 14 (through October 13):
The overall cost basis of U.S. spot BTC ETFs is around $81,500. BTC is currently at $81,610, essentially right at breakeven. ETF holders are neither up nor down overall.
Liquidation levels (Bitget UEX daily report, October 15):
- Short liquidation zone above: $82,400–$82,800 (1.05%–1.54% above the current price)
- Long liquidation zone below: $80,600–$81,200 (0.42%–1.15% below the current price)
- The zone below is closer. The ETF cost basis at $81,500 sits right at the upper edge of this long liquidation zone.
What this means: If BTC falls below $81,500 (the ETF cost basis), two things will happen at once: ETFs will move into the red, and the long liquidation zone will be triggered. The two sources of selling pressure will compound, accelerating the decline. Conversely, if BTC holds above $82,800, short liquidations could provide fuel for an upward move.
Outlook: $80,600–$82,800 is the current “death zone,” with liquidation fuel on both sides. The market will likely wait for tonight’s 20:30 PPI release to pick a direction. Until then, range-bound trading and repeated wicks liquidating both longs and shorts are likely to dominate.
$BTC
Just my personal opinion; this is not investment advice.
Glassnode data dated October 14 (through October 13):
The overall cost basis of U.S. spot BTC ETFs is around $81,500. BTC is currently at $81,610, essentially right at breakeven. ETF holders are neither up nor down overall.
Liquidation levels (Bitget UEX daily report, October 15):
- Short liquidation zone above: $82,400–$82,800 (1.05%–1.54% above the current price)
- Long liquidation zone below: $80,600–$81,200 (0.42%–1.15% below the current price)
- The zone below is closer. The ETF cost basis at $81,500 sits right at the upper edge of this long liquidation zone.
What this means: If BTC falls below $81,500 (the ETF cost basis), two things will happen at once: ETFs will move into the red, and the long liquidation zone will be triggered. The two sources of selling pressure will compound, accelerating the decline. Conversely, if BTC holds above $82,800, short liquidations could provide fuel for an upward move.
Outlook: $80,600–$82,800 is the current “death zone,” with liquidation fuel on both sides. The market will likely wait for tonight’s 20:30 PPI release to pick a direction. Until then, range-bound trading and repeated wicks liquidating both longs and shorts are likely to dominate.
$BTC
Just my personal opinion; this is not investment advice.