CPI at 3.7%: hotter than expected, including core inflation. What it means for Bitcoin
The BLS released September’s CPI on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. in New York. Annual inflation reached 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August and above the 3.6% expected. Month over month, the index rose 0.6%, as expected.
The numbers
→ Headline: 3.7% year over year (3.6% expected), +0.6% month over month
→ Core: 2.6% year over year (2.5% expected), +0.3% month over month (0.2% expected)
→ Gasoline: +9.1% month over month, accounting for more than half of the monthly increase (BLS)
→ Shelter: +0.4% month over month. Food: unchanged
What matters: core inflation, which the Fed closely monitors, also came in above expectations. According to Carson Group, it rose at an annualized rate of 3.7% in September (cited by CNBC).
Market reaction: Bitcoin falls below 83,000 $ and slides toward $82,000. Gold falls below 4,100 $ (FXStreet). Spot Bitcoin ETFs had recorded $175.62 M$ in inflows on Tuesday.
The Fed: the probability of a rate hike in October is around 22%, versus approximately 78% for rates to remain unchanged (KuCoin). The meeting takes place on October 27 and 28.
My analysis: an October pause remains the base case, but the risk is shifting toward December. Producer price data is due Thursday. This is a hypothesis, not a forecast.
This is not investment advice.
After this CPI report, are you expecting the Fed to hold rates through the end of the year, or to raise them in December?
#CPIWatch
The BLS released September’s CPI on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. in New York. Annual inflation reached 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August and above the 3.6% expected. Month over month, the index rose 0.6%, as expected.
The numbers
→ Headline: 3.7% year over year (3.6% expected), +0.6% month over month
→ Core: 2.6% year over year (2.5% expected), +0.3% month over month (0.2% expected)
→ Gasoline: +9.1% month over month, accounting for more than half of the monthly increase (BLS)
→ Shelter: +0.4% month over month. Food: unchanged
What matters: core inflation, which the Fed closely monitors, also came in above expectations. According to Carson Group, it rose at an annualized rate of 3.7% in September (cited by CNBC).
Market reaction: Bitcoin falls below 83,000 $ and slides toward $82,000. Gold falls below 4,100 $ (FXStreet). Spot Bitcoin ETFs had recorded $175.62 M$ in inflows on Tuesday.
The Fed: the probability of a rate hike in October is around 22%, versus approximately 78% for rates to remain unchanged (KuCoin). The meeting takes place on October 27 and 28.
My analysis: an October pause remains the base case, but the risk is shifting toward December. Producer price data is due Thursday. This is a hypothesis, not a forecast.
This is not investment advice.
After this CPI report, are you expecting the Fed to hold rates through the end of the year, or to raise them in December?
#CPIWatch