September U.S. CPI is here! How will crude oil and U.S. Treasuries move after the data comes out?
Key data: Year-over-year inflation rose to 3.7% (from 3.4%), while gasoline prices surged 9.1% in a single month, accounting for more than half of the increase. Core CPI also rose 2.6%.
My take:
1. U.S. Treasuries: They’ve already been directly rattled. Yields had been rising rapidly, and the odds of an October rate hike jumped from around 20% to nearly 50%. Short-term yields reacted most sharply, suggesting the market is repricing a “higher for longer” rate path.
2. Crude oil: CPI is more an “outcome” than a “cause.” The main reason prices are elevated is still supply disruption caused by the war involving Iran. As long as geopolitical risks don’t ease, prices are likely to remain volatile at high levels, continuing to put pressure on inflation and the bond market.
In a nutshell: high inflation pushes inflation higher → higher inflation lifts rate expectations → U.S. Treasuries come under pressure. This chain will be hard to break in the short term. Do you think the Fed will hold steady at the end of October, or hike rates outright? Let’s discuss in the comments.
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$ETH
#9月cpi来袭原油美债走势如何
Key data: Year-over-year inflation rose to 3.7% (from 3.4%), while gasoline prices surged 9.1% in a single month, accounting for more than half of the increase. Core CPI also rose 2.6%.
My take:
1. U.S. Treasuries: They’ve already been directly rattled. Yields had been rising rapidly, and the odds of an October rate hike jumped from around 20% to nearly 50%. Short-term yields reacted most sharply, suggesting the market is repricing a “higher for longer” rate path.
2. Crude oil: CPI is more an “outcome” than a “cause.” The main reason prices are elevated is still supply disruption caused by the war involving Iran. As long as geopolitical risks don’t ease, prices are likely to remain volatile at high levels, continuing to put pressure on inflation and the bond market.
In a nutshell: high inflation pushes inflation higher → higher inflation lifts rate expectations → U.S. Treasuries come under pressure. This chain will be hard to break in the short term. Do you think the Fed will hold steady at the end of October, or hike rates outright? Let’s discuss in the comments.
$BTC
$ETH
#9月cpi来袭原油美债走势如何