On-chain data: Bitcoin is facing two groups of underwater holders overhead.
Glassnode report dated October 14 (data through October 13): BTC is currently at $81,695. Coins bought 6–12 months ago have an average cost basis of around $88,000; those bought 1–2 years ago have an average cost basis of around $100,000. Both groups are underwater.
In terms of behavior, holders who have held for 1–2 years stepped up selling during the early-October rebound. They sell when the price reaches their cost basis, creating overhead resistance.
The implication is straightforward: until BTC reclaims $88,000, these two groups’ cost bases act as a ceiling. Every rebound toward $88,000 is likely to run into selling pressure from holders looking to break even.
My take: this isn’t a matter of sentiment; it’s a matter of math. There is real overhead supply above $88,000 from holders waiting to break even. Unless fresh capital comes in—through sustained ETF inflows or a large-scale entry of stablecoins—it will be difficult for BTC to break above $88,000 in one go. In the short term, trading within the $80,000–$84,000 range looks more likely.
$BTC
This is solely my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.
Glassnode report dated October 14 (data through October 13): BTC is currently at $81,695. Coins bought 6–12 months ago have an average cost basis of around $88,000; those bought 1–2 years ago have an average cost basis of around $100,000. Both groups are underwater.
In terms of behavior, holders who have held for 1–2 years stepped up selling during the early-October rebound. They sell when the price reaches their cost basis, creating overhead resistance.
The implication is straightforward: until BTC reclaims $88,000, these two groups’ cost bases act as a ceiling. Every rebound toward $88,000 is likely to run into selling pressure from holders looking to break even.
My take: this isn’t a matter of sentiment; it’s a matter of math. There is real overhead supply above $88,000 from holders waiting to break even. Unless fresh capital comes in—through sustained ETF inflows or a large-scale entry of stablecoins—it will be difficult for BTC to break above $88,000 in one go. In the short term, trading within the $80,000–$84,000 range looks more likely.
$BTC
This is solely my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.