#美国9月cpi升至3.7%
【Old Leek Watch】U.S. CPI rises to 3.7%—Bitcoin now faces renewed rate-hike expectations.
U.S. headline CPI rose 3.7% year over year in September, up from 3.4% the previous month, and 0.6% month over month. Core CPI rose to 2.6% year over year and increased 0.3% month over month. These figures show inflationary pressure is picking up again. However, gasoline prices rose 9.1% in a single month, an important reason for the increase in headline inflation this time around.
Why is the crypto market watching this report? If inflation remains higher than expected, it will be harder for the Fed to pivot easily to rate cuts, and it may even revisit the possibility of raising rates. Higher rate expectations typically put pressure on risk assets such as BTC and ETH.
But I don’t think CPI rising to 3.7% means Bitcoin is bound to fall. What matters is how much of the rate-hike outlook the market has already priced in, and how Treasury yields and the dollar respond from here.
I’ll be watching two signals next:
First, whether Treasury yields continue to rise; second, whether BTC can hold recent support during a pullback and reclaim key resistance levels during a rebound.
If the dollar and yields continue to strengthen, BTC rebounds may face more selling pressure. If the market absorbs the inflation-related bad news and prices hold firm, that could indicate investors have already priced in the worst-case scenario.
【Old Leek Watch】U.S. CPI rises to 3.7%—Bitcoin now faces renewed rate-hike expectations.
U.S. headline CPI rose 3.7% year over year in September, up from 3.4% the previous month, and 0.6% month over month. Core CPI rose to 2.6% year over year and increased 0.3% month over month. These figures show inflationary pressure is picking up again. However, gasoline prices rose 9.1% in a single month, an important reason for the increase in headline inflation this time around.
Why is the crypto market watching this report? If inflation remains higher than expected, it will be harder for the Fed to pivot easily to rate cuts, and it may even revisit the possibility of raising rates. Higher rate expectations typically put pressure on risk assets such as BTC and ETH.
But I don’t think CPI rising to 3.7% means Bitcoin is bound to fall. What matters is how much of the rate-hike outlook the market has already priced in, and how Treasury yields and the dollar respond from here.
I’ll be watching two signals next:
First, whether Treasury yields continue to rise; second, whether BTC can hold recent support during a pullback and reclaim key resistance levels during a rebound.
If the dollar and yields continue to strengthen, BTC rebounds may face more selling pressure. If the market absorbs the inflation-related bad news and prices hold firm, that could indicate investors have already priced in the worst-case scenario.