$ZEREBRO For now, I’m treating this rebound as a weak recovery. The latest completed hourly candle rose 3.69%, but volume fell another 35.40%. Looking at the just-completed four-hour candle alongside it makes the picture clearer: price has yet to reclaim its former level, while trading activity has already faded.
The 10:00 update covered 09:00–10:00: after a sharp drop, buyers stepped back in, and the candle closed at 0.041474, still below the former breakout level of 0.042353. The question then was whether the rebound could close back above that level. Next, during 10:00–11:00, price reached a high of 0.043900, briefly moving above it, but ultimately closed at 0.039655. Touching a level and holding above it are two different things; this completed candle did not confirm a recovery.
During 11:00–12:00, price rebounded again, rising from 0.039656 to close at 0.041121, with a low of 0.038602 and a high of 0.041967. The close was higher than in the previous hour, but price did not even retest the intrahour high of 0.042353. The rebound is still intact, but whether it has enough momentum to continue remains uncertain.
The change in volume is even clearer. Trading volume was about 37.1565 million USDT during 09:00–10:00, fell to 15.8019 million during 10:00–11:00, then dropped again to 10.2077 million during 11:00–12:00. The latest hour was down 35.40% from the previous one and about 72.53% below the busiest buyback hour. These figures represent trading volume for the same contract over the same one-hour period, indicating that trading activity is weakening; the decline in volume cannot be directly interpreted as the amount of capital withdrawn.
Another new piece of evidence is that the 08:00–12:00 four-hour candle has now fully closed: price fell 13.72%, from 0.047659 to 0.041121, on volume of about 94.8622 million USDT, up 90.51% from 04:00–08:00. The previous four-hour candle pushed higher, while the next one pulled back on greater volume. The morning’s retracement is now confirmed over a full, longer timeframe, so there is no need to guess how a partially formed four-hour candle will close.
Open interest did not keep shrinking throughout. During 11:00–12:00, the number of open contracts rose from about 238.8 million to 244.6 million, an increase of 2.42%; however, it remains below the roughly 250.3 million recorded at 10:00. Exposure increased in the latest hour, but has not returned to its earlier level, and the data does not show which side was opening positions. The newly settled funding rate at 12:00 was positive 0.005332%, significantly lower than the positive 0.045352% at 08:00. The drop in funding costs should not be taken to mean that resistance to further gains has disappeared.
Next, I’ll continue watching whether 0.042353 can hold as a full-hour close, while also monitoring whether volume picks up again. If the rebound continues to fail to close back above that level, or price falls below the earlier low of 0.036355, we’ll have to acknowledge that the recovery remains insufficient. I found no new project announcement that could independently explain the volatility, so I won’t try to force a causal link to old listing news. The 12:00–13:00 and 12:00–16:00 periods have only just begun. What we can confirm for now is the pullback over the preceding four hours—not that the next leg has already bottomed.
The 10:00 update covered 09:00–10:00: after a sharp drop, buyers stepped back in, and the candle closed at 0.041474, still below the former breakout level of 0.042353. The question then was whether the rebound could close back above that level. Next, during 10:00–11:00, price reached a high of 0.043900, briefly moving above it, but ultimately closed at 0.039655. Touching a level and holding above it are two different things; this completed candle did not confirm a recovery.
During 11:00–12:00, price rebounded again, rising from 0.039656 to close at 0.041121, with a low of 0.038602 and a high of 0.041967. The close was higher than in the previous hour, but price did not even retest the intrahour high of 0.042353. The rebound is still intact, but whether it has enough momentum to continue remains uncertain.
The change in volume is even clearer. Trading volume was about 37.1565 million USDT during 09:00–10:00, fell to 15.8019 million during 10:00–11:00, then dropped again to 10.2077 million during 11:00–12:00. The latest hour was down 35.40% from the previous one and about 72.53% below the busiest buyback hour. These figures represent trading volume for the same contract over the same one-hour period, indicating that trading activity is weakening; the decline in volume cannot be directly interpreted as the amount of capital withdrawn.
Another new piece of evidence is that the 08:00–12:00 four-hour candle has now fully closed: price fell 13.72%, from 0.047659 to 0.041121, on volume of about 94.8622 million USDT, up 90.51% from 04:00–08:00. The previous four-hour candle pushed higher, while the next one pulled back on greater volume. The morning’s retracement is now confirmed over a full, longer timeframe, so there is no need to guess how a partially formed four-hour candle will close.
Open interest did not keep shrinking throughout. During 11:00–12:00, the number of open contracts rose from about 238.8 million to 244.6 million, an increase of 2.42%; however, it remains below the roughly 250.3 million recorded at 10:00. Exposure increased in the latest hour, but has not returned to its earlier level, and the data does not show which side was opening positions. The newly settled funding rate at 12:00 was positive 0.005332%, significantly lower than the positive 0.045352% at 08:00. The drop in funding costs should not be taken to mean that resistance to further gains has disappeared.
Next, I’ll continue watching whether 0.042353 can hold as a full-hour close, while also monitoring whether volume picks up again. If the rebound continues to fail to close back above that level, or price falls below the earlier low of 0.036355, we’ll have to acknowledge that the recovery remains insufficient. I found no new project announcement that could independently explain the volatility, so I won’t try to force a causal link to old listing news. The 12:00–13:00 and 12:00–16:00 periods have only just begun. What we can confirm for now is the pullback over the preceding four hours—not that the next leg has already bottomed.