In those 15 minutes at 10:15 today (UTC+8), BTC fell from 81,814 to 80,226 (about −1.9%), while ETH fell from 2,418 to 2,318 (about −4.1%). ETH’s decline was roughly twice BTC’s.
The 80,393 level (the 10/8 low) I said to watch this morning was briefly pierced intraday. The low was 80,226, but the price didn’t stay below it: after the sharp drop, it bounced back to around 81,300, and was about 80,900 when I wrote this. The daily candle hasn’t closed yet, so it’s too early to say the level has “failed to hold.”
What I think is more worth watching is ETH’s relative strength against BTC: ETHBTC hit an intraday low of 0.02888, its lowest since 7/24. The low I wrote about on 10/13 was still 0.0297. ETH has been weaker than BTC all week:
・10/14 daily change: ETH −3.1%, BTC −1.8%
・Today, as of writing: ETH about −2.7%, BTC about −1.0%
Fund flows point in the same direction: ETH spot ETFs saw net outflows for 10 consecutive days from 9/29 to 10/12, totaling about $780 million. There was a modest inflow of $24.8 million on 10/13, but the reported portion for 10/14 was −$19.7 million (the largest fund, ETHA, hasn’t reported yet).
I haven’t found a reliable source for the direct cause of this sharp drop, so I won’t speculate for now.
What to watch next:
1. Whether BTC closes above 80,393 on the 10/15 daily candle (10/16 08:00 UTC+8 / 00:00 UTC). If it also remains below 82,787, that would make two consecutive daily closes below that level.
2. Whether ETHBTC can reclaim 0.0297. If it can’t and continues toward the late-July low of around 0.0287, that would mean ETH’s relative weakness is not over.
3. Whether ETHA saw inflows or outflows on 10/14.
$ETH $BTC｜Source: Binance BTCUSDT / ETHUSDT / ETHBTC candlestick data, Farside (10/14 data incomplete)｜Not investment advice
The 80,393 level (the 10/8 low) I said to watch this morning was briefly pierced intraday. The low was 80,226, but the price didn’t stay below it: after the sharp drop, it bounced back to around 81,300, and was about 80,900 when I wrote this. The daily candle hasn’t closed yet, so it’s too early to say the level has “failed to hold.”
What I think is more worth watching is ETH’s relative strength against BTC: ETHBTC hit an intraday low of 0.02888, its lowest since 7/24. The low I wrote about on 10/13 was still 0.0297. ETH has been weaker than BTC all week:
・10/14 daily change: ETH −3.1%, BTC −1.8%
・Today, as of writing: ETH about −2.7%, BTC about −1.0%
Fund flows point in the same direction: ETH spot ETFs saw net outflows for 10 consecutive days from 9/29 to 10/12, totaling about $780 million. There was a modest inflow of $24.8 million on 10/13, but the reported portion for 10/14 was −$19.7 million (the largest fund, ETHA, hasn’t reported yet).
I haven’t found a reliable source for the direct cause of this sharp drop, so I won’t speculate for now.
What to watch next:
1. Whether BTC closes above 80,393 on the 10/15 daily candle (10/16 08:00 UTC+8 / 00:00 UTC). If it also remains below 82,787, that would make two consecutive daily closes below that level.
2. Whether ETHBTC can reclaim 0.0297. If it can’t and continues toward the late-July low of around 0.0287, that would mean ETH’s relative weakness is not over.
3. Whether ETHA saw inflows or outflows on 10/14.
$ETH $BTC｜Source: Binance BTCUSDT / ETHUSDT / ETHBTC candlestick data, Farside (10/14 data incomplete)｜Not investment advice