This pullback could take $BTC down to 80,000, while $ETH is more likely to test the area around 2,200. For now, the market is sitting on the sidelines across the board—there’s no need to rush into buying the dip.
Why do I think the bottom isn’t in yet? Let’s break it down across three dimensions:
1. Macro selling pressure and a CPI rebound (Macro / Rates)
The latest CPI data showed a year-over-year increase to 3.7%, with inflation proving stickier than expected. The Fed had just resumed raising rates, and expectations of further hikes before year-end have surged. Combined with liquidity being drained amid suspicions of selling from U.S. government wallets, traditional macro investors’ risk appetite has fallen sharply. The macro backdrop simply doesn’t support a V-shaped reversal.
2. Order book and market microstructure (Market Microstructure)
The order book and liquidation heatmap show that although a batch of highly leveraged longs was flushed out this morning, CEX depth on the bid side has shrunk far too much, and buying interest is extremely weak. After breaking below 84k and 2,600, former strong support has turned directly into strong resistance. Until we see a low-volume halt in the decline or a bullish divergence signal, this liquidity-vacuum market could easily move lower again.
3. Positioning and the ETH/BTC exchange-rate structure
The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to search for a bottom, while on-chain staking and DeFi liquidation levels remain clustered below, especially in the 2,200–2,300 range. When sentiment is extremely fragile, liquidity often moves lower to “seek liquidations.” A true washout may not happen until those liquidation levels have been completely wiped out.
Save your powder for confirmation. There’s no harm in waiting until prices reach the 80k / 2200 area, or until the chart forms a clear double bottom, before making a move.
#BTC #ETH #Crypto #Quant
Why do I think the bottom isn’t in yet? Let’s break it down across three dimensions:
1. Macro selling pressure and a CPI rebound (Macro / Rates)
The latest CPI data showed a year-over-year increase to 3.7%, with inflation proving stickier than expected. The Fed had just resumed raising rates, and expectations of further hikes before year-end have surged. Combined with liquidity being drained amid suspicions of selling from U.S. government wallets, traditional macro investors’ risk appetite has fallen sharply. The macro backdrop simply doesn’t support a V-shaped reversal.
2. Order book and market microstructure (Market Microstructure)
The order book and liquidation heatmap show that although a batch of highly leveraged longs was flushed out this morning, CEX depth on the bid side has shrunk far too much, and buying interest is extremely weak. After breaking below 84k and 2,600, former strong support has turned directly into strong resistance. Until we see a low-volume halt in the decline or a bullish divergence signal, this liquidity-vacuum market could easily move lower again.
3. Positioning and the ETH/BTC exchange-rate structure
The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to search for a bottom, while on-chain staking and DeFi liquidation levels remain clustered below, especially in the 2,200–2,300 range. When sentiment is extremely fragile, liquidity often moves lower to “seek liquidations.” A true washout may not happen until those liquidation levels have been completely wiped out.
Save your powder for confirmation. There’s no harm in waiting until prices reach the 80k / 2200 area, or until the chart forms a clear double bottom, before making a move.
#BTC #ETH #Crypto #Quant