Bitcoin faces the possibility of sharp volatility as CPI data is released today, with a forecast of 3.6%. The inflation reading could affect Fed rate expectations and the outlook for BTC prices in November.
While Bitcoin's market cap dominance has exceeded 60%, USDT dominance is facing resistance around 7%. BTC accumulation and rising global liquidity support the recovery scenario, but are not yet enough to confirm a new uptrend.
KEY CONTENT
A higher-than-expected CPI reading could increase the likelihood of the Fed continuing to raise interest rates.
Five wallets bought a total of 1,076 BTC ahead of the CPI release.
USDT.D's 7% resistance and liquidity flows into Bitcoin are signals to watch.
How could CPI affect Bitcoin?
A CPI reading above the forecast of 3.6% could raise expectations that the Fed will increase interest rates. Conversely, a lower-than-forecast reading could strengthen the case for the Fed to pause rate hikes at least through the end of October.
Markets could become more volatile in the second half of the month, affecting Bitcoin's performance as November begins. The $75,000–$80,000 range is worth watching because it represents a significant cost-basis area for short-term holders, who may sell as volatility increases.
Source: X
BTC accumulation and global liquidity support a recovery scenario
The five wallets that bought BTC ahead of the CPI release, along with rising global liquidity, are factors supporting Bitcoin's recovery scenario. However, this scenario also depends on whether funds continue to flow into BTC.
An analyst noted that five wallets bought a total of 1,076 BTC, worth $90.42 million. At the same time, Bitcoin's share of total market capitalization has moved back above the 60% resistance level, suggesting buying pressure may be increasing ahead of market volatility.
According to Alphractal data, global liquidity has increased significantly over the past 30 days. The figures on BTC buying activity and the money supply are summarized below.
Metric Data CPI forecast 3.6% Number of wallets buying BTC before CPI release 5 wallets Total BTC purchased 1,076 BTC Value of BTC purchased $90.42 million Bitcoin's share of total market capitalization Above 60% Significant cost-basis range for short-term holders $75,000–$80,000 Total global money supply according to Alphractal $140 trillion China's share of the global money supply 39% U.S. share of the global money supply 17%
Rising global liquidity does not necessarily mean Bitcoin will receive a corresponding inflow of capital. BTC's ability to hold the short-term holders' cost basis still depends on buying demand and how well selling pressure is absorbed during market volatility.
USDT.D's 7% resistance is a checkpoint for capital flows
USDT's share of total market capitalization, or USDT.D, is facing resistance around 7%. If the index fails to break above that threshold and falls again, funds could move from stablecoins into risk assets, supporting Bitcoin.
USDT.D rose more than 2.5% this month as Bitcoin fell from $87,000 to $82,000. This suggests traders are holding more capital in stablecoins and waiting for an opportunity to deploy it.
During the mid-September rally, USDT.D also failed to break above the 7% level, then fell for three weeks as Bitcoin rose from $74,000 to $87,000. This previous movement provides a basis for the capital rotation scenario, but does not guarantee that the pattern will repeat.
Period or indicator USDT.D movement Bitcoin movement Current month Rose more than 2.5% Fell from $87,000 to $82,000 After USDT.D failed to break above 7% in mid-September Fell for three weeks Rose from $74,000 to $87,000 Recovery scenario under consideration Fails to break above resistance around 7% Could retest $87,000 if supported by capital flows
Source: TradingView (USDT.D)
If USDT.D falls from resistance while liquidity continues to rise and BTC accumulation persists, Bitcoin could gain further momentum to retest $87,000 in November. This remains a conditional scenario, dependent on how capital flows move after the CPI release.
Summary
Bitcoin's outlook for November depends on the reaction to CPI data, BTC buying demand, and the direction of stablecoin flows. Bitcoin's $75,000–$80,000 range and USDT.D's 7% resistance are key levels to watch when assessing the possibility of a recovery to $87,000.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-nham-moc-87-000-usd-khi-cpi-va-ty-trong-usdt-chi-phoi-da-tang/
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