SOL drops below $105: What is the market worried about 6 days before Alpenglow?
Data (October 15):
1. Price: SOL is currently at $103.03, down 4.29% in 24 hours, with an intraday low of $100.62. $100 is a psychological level.
2. Derivatives: Open interest is $6.67 billion, down 5.21% over 2 days. Liquidations totaled $9.67 million in 24 hours, with longs accounting for 87.9%. 72% of SOL futures accounts are holding long positions—a crowded retail long trade that could accelerate the decline.
3. ETFs: 7 consecutive days of net outflows. Institutions are sitting on the sidelines ahead of Alpenglow.
4. Catalysts: Alpenglow mainnet launch on October 21 (finality reduced to 150 ms). Samsung Wallet to support Solana USDC by the end of October (82 million devices).
Assessment: The technical upgrade is positive, but the market is voting with its feet. The split is clear: 72% of retail traders are long, while institutions have seen 7 consecutive days of outflows. If $100 fails to hold, the next support level is $95.82. A successful Alpenglow launch is key to a reversal.
$SOL
Personal opinion only; this is not investment advice.
Data (October 15):
1. Price: SOL is currently at $103.03, down 4.29% in 24 hours, with an intraday low of $100.62. $100 is a psychological level.
2. Derivatives: Open interest is $6.67 billion, down 5.21% over 2 days. Liquidations totaled $9.67 million in 24 hours, with longs accounting for 87.9%. 72% of SOL futures accounts are holding long positions—a crowded retail long trade that could accelerate the decline.
3. ETFs: 7 consecutive days of net outflows. Institutions are sitting on the sidelines ahead of Alpenglow.
4. Catalysts: Alpenglow mainnet launch on October 21 (finality reduced to 150 ms). Samsung Wallet to support Solana USDC by the end of October (82 million devices).
Assessment: The technical upgrade is positive, but the market is voting with its feet. The split is clear: 72% of retail traders are long, while institutions have seen 7 consecutive days of outflows. If $100 fails to hold, the next support level is $95.82. A successful Alpenglow launch is key to a reversal.
$SOL
Personal opinion only; this is not investment advice.