Waiting until after the midterm elections to take a big short position in crude oil!!!
$CL New York crude oil: $94.80; settled at $95.17, up 1.09 percentage points. Houthis strike Riyadh airport again
Settled at $95.17 on October 14, up 1.09 percentage points. Yemen’s Houthi forces used ballistic missiles to attack Saudi Arabia’s King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, claiming a hit. The airport remains closed. Saudi Aramco’s office building in Dhahran was also attacked the same day. The U.S. military destroyed Iran-linked vessels in the Gulf of Oman. The International Energy Agency’s monthly report forecasts that global oil supply will fall by 5.8 million barrels per day in 2026, with diesel shortages continuing into next year. Offsetting factors include Russian diesel flowing into the U.S. ahead of the midterm elections and the release of strategic reserves. Resistance: $95.30 and $96.50; support: $93.50 and $92.00. Related A-share and Hong Kong-listed stocks: $中国石油, $中国石化, $中海油服, and $中国海洋石油.
$BZ Brent crude oil: $106.11, trading sideways at elevated levels amid two-way geopolitical swings
Previous close: $105.69; trading at $106.11 on the morning of the 15th. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is at a two-month low. The strait carries around one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil shipments each day and is the single most sensitive variable for oil prices. The U.S. is considering unfreezing some Russian assets to restart peace talks, but Europe has rejected the idea. Russia and Ukraine continue to attack each other’s energy facilities. High oil prices are reinforcing sticky inflation, in turn strengthening expectations of Federal Reserve tightening and creating a feedback loop between commodities and interest rates. Resistance: $107.15 and $108.00; support: $104.80 and $103.00. Soochow Securities believes geopolitical conflicts could strengthen global energy-security needs and drive up the baseline for oil and gas capital expenditure.
$NATGAS U.S. natural gas: $3.995, up about 0.6 percentage points; heating demand starts to be priced in
Previous close: $3.973. Key drivers include winter temperatures, the progression of El Niño weather patterns, liquefied natural gas export capacity, and rising data-center electricity consumption. The World Meteorological Organization expects El Niño to intensify and persist through February 2027. The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts that U.S. electricity consumption will hit record highs in 2026 and 2027. The International Energy Agency warns that diesel supply shortages will continue into next year. EIA natural gas storage data is due today at 22:30. Resistance: $4.05 and $4.15; support: $3.95 and $3.85. Related U.S. stocks: $BE and $FLNC; for A-shares, watch natural-gas power generation and city-gas companies.
$CL New York crude oil: $94.80; settled at $95.17, up 1.09 percentage points. Houthis strike Riyadh airport again
Settled at $95.17 on October 14, up 1.09 percentage points. Yemen’s Houthi forces used ballistic missiles to attack Saudi Arabia’s King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, claiming a hit. The airport remains closed. Saudi Aramco’s office building in Dhahran was also attacked the same day. The U.S. military destroyed Iran-linked vessels in the Gulf of Oman. The International Energy Agency’s monthly report forecasts that global oil supply will fall by 5.8 million barrels per day in 2026, with diesel shortages continuing into next year. Offsetting factors include Russian diesel flowing into the U.S. ahead of the midterm elections and the release of strategic reserves. Resistance: $95.30 and $96.50; support: $93.50 and $92.00. Related A-share and Hong Kong-listed stocks: $中国石油, $中国石化, $中海油服, and $中国海洋石油.
$BZ Brent crude oil: $106.11, trading sideways at elevated levels amid two-way geopolitical swings
Previous close: $105.69; trading at $106.11 on the morning of the 15th. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is at a two-month low. The strait carries around one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil shipments each day and is the single most sensitive variable for oil prices. The U.S. is considering unfreezing some Russian assets to restart peace talks, but Europe has rejected the idea. Russia and Ukraine continue to attack each other’s energy facilities. High oil prices are reinforcing sticky inflation, in turn strengthening expectations of Federal Reserve tightening and creating a feedback loop between commodities and interest rates. Resistance: $107.15 and $108.00; support: $104.80 and $103.00. Soochow Securities believes geopolitical conflicts could strengthen global energy-security needs and drive up the baseline for oil and gas capital expenditure.
$NATGAS U.S. natural gas: $3.995, up about 0.6 percentage points; heating demand starts to be priced in
Previous close: $3.973. Key drivers include winter temperatures, the progression of El Niño weather patterns, liquefied natural gas export capacity, and rising data-center electricity consumption. The World Meteorological Organization expects El Niño to intensify and persist through February 2027. The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts that U.S. electricity consumption will hit record highs in 2026 and 2027. The International Energy Agency warns that diesel supply shortages will continue into next year. EIA natural gas storage data is due today at 22:30. Resistance: $4.05 and $4.15; support: $3.95 and $3.85. Related U.S. stocks: $BE and $FLNC; for A-shares, watch natural-gas power generation and city-gas companies.