【There’s an on-chain signal more interesting than price movements】
NEAR has taken quite a tumble over the past few days—down 7.5% in 24 hours and 10.6% over 7 days. It looks pretty alarming. But that’s not what I’m really watching.
It’s trading volume.
NEAR’s daily trading volume now exceeds 5% of its market cap. When was the last time we saw that number? Around last year’s major bottom. Whenever trading volume suddenly spikes as a share of market cap, it usually means either big money is stepping in to buy the dip, or someone is selling at any cost. Those two scenarios play out very differently.
Based on what I’ve seen, these volume anomalies are rarely followed by sideways trading. It’s usually either a sharp rally or a breakdown—with no in-between.
The current situation is more nuanced. NEAR is up nearly 95% over the past month, so short-term holders have built up a fair amount of profit. On top of that, the broader Bitcoin market is waiting on CPI data, and sentiment is already on edge. In this kind of environment, a sudden surge in volume looks more like holders are losing confidence and some people are getting out.
But there’s an important question here: who’s getting out?
If early holders with a low cost basis are taking profits, that’s perfectly normal. Once the selling pressure is absorbed, it could even be healthy. But if large on-chain holders are reducing their positions en masse, then there could be more downside ahead. The data I’m seeing so far doesn’t clearly point to the latter.
I’m not saying this to tell you to buy the dip or run for the exits. I just think on-chain data reveals a lot more than the red and green lines on your screen. Candlesticks can be drawn; volume doesn’t lie.
Bitcoin is hovering around 83k, and NEAR is waiting for a direction too. Keep a close eye on this volume signal over the next few days. It’ll tell you what the big money is really up to.
Do you think this can actually come to fruition? Do you see this pullback in NEAR as an opportunity, or do you think it hasn’t fallen far enough yet?
NEAR has taken quite a tumble over the past few days—down 7.5% in 24 hours and 10.6% over 7 days. It looks pretty alarming. But that’s not what I’m really watching.
It’s trading volume.
NEAR’s daily trading volume now exceeds 5% of its market cap. When was the last time we saw that number? Around last year’s major bottom. Whenever trading volume suddenly spikes as a share of market cap, it usually means either big money is stepping in to buy the dip, or someone is selling at any cost. Those two scenarios play out very differently.
Based on what I’ve seen, these volume anomalies are rarely followed by sideways trading. It’s usually either a sharp rally or a breakdown—with no in-between.
The current situation is more nuanced. NEAR is up nearly 95% over the past month, so short-term holders have built up a fair amount of profit. On top of that, the broader Bitcoin market is waiting on CPI data, and sentiment is already on edge. In this kind of environment, a sudden surge in volume looks more like holders are losing confidence and some people are getting out.
But there’s an important question here: who’s getting out?
If early holders with a low cost basis are taking profits, that’s perfectly normal. Once the selling pressure is absorbed, it could even be healthy. But if large on-chain holders are reducing their positions en masse, then there could be more downside ahead. The data I’m seeing so far doesn’t clearly point to the latter.
I’m not saying this to tell you to buy the dip or run for the exits. I just think on-chain data reveals a lot more than the red and green lines on your screen. Candlesticks can be drawn; volume doesn’t lie.
Bitcoin is hovering around 83k, and NEAR is waiting for a direction too. Keep a close eye on this volume signal over the next few days. It’ll tell you what the big money is really up to.
Do you think this can actually come to fruition? Do you see this pullback in NEAR as an opportunity, or do you think it hasn’t fallen far enough yet?