When CPI was released, BTC dropped by about $1,200 in five minutes, invalidating yesterday’s call that it had “reclaimed 82,787.”
The U.S. September CPI released last night at 20:30 (UTC+8) / 12:30 UTC came in hotter than the previous month:
・Headline CPI rose 0.6% month over month (vs. 0.4% in August) and 3.7% year over year (vs. 3.4% in August); more than half of the monthly increase came from gasoline, which rose 9.1%
・Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month over month, unchanged from August; it rose 2.6% year over year (vs. 2.4% in August)
So this time, the increase was mainly driven by oil prices; monthly core inflation did not accelerate.
The market reaction was immediate: in the five minutes around the release, BTCUSDT fell from 83,933 to 82,731 and did not recover. The 10/14 daily candle closed at 81,682 (−1.8%), back below 82,787. ETH closed at 2,421.6 (−3.1%) the same day.
One thing I noticed: the 82,787 level switched sides three times in three days (the 10/12 close was below it, the 10/13 close was above it, and the 10/14 close was below it again). A single daily close above or below it is no longer very meaningful; going forward, I’ll only count it if we get two consecutive daily closes on the same side.
The flow data is still incomplete: Farside’s disclosed portion of the 10/14 BTC ETF flows is −$150.5 million (mainly FBTC at −$152.7 million); IBIT has not reported. Disclosed ETH flows are −$19.7 million; ETHA has not reported.
What to watch next:
1. Whether the 10/15 daily close (10/16 08:00 UTC+8 / 00:00 UTC) will make it two consecutive closes below 82,787
2. Whether the recent low at 80,393 holds; a close back above 84,972 would be needed to leave this range
3. Whether 10/14 flows turn out to be inflows or outflows once IBIT / ETHA figures are complete
$BTC $ETH｜Sources: BLS September CPI, Binance BTCUSDT / ETHUSDT candlesticks, Farside (10/14 data incomplete)｜Not investment advice
The U.S. September CPI released last night at 20:30 (UTC+8) / 12:30 UTC came in hotter than the previous month:
・Headline CPI rose 0.6% month over month (vs. 0.4% in August) and 3.7% year over year (vs. 3.4% in August); more than half of the monthly increase came from gasoline, which rose 9.1%
・Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month over month, unchanged from August; it rose 2.6% year over year (vs. 2.4% in August)
So this time, the increase was mainly driven by oil prices; monthly core inflation did not accelerate.
The market reaction was immediate: in the five minutes around the release, BTCUSDT fell from 83,933 to 82,731 and did not recover. The 10/14 daily candle closed at 81,682 (−1.8%), back below 82,787. ETH closed at 2,421.6 (−3.1%) the same day.
One thing I noticed: the 82,787 level switched sides three times in three days (the 10/12 close was below it, the 10/13 close was above it, and the 10/14 close was below it again). A single daily close above or below it is no longer very meaningful; going forward, I’ll only count it if we get two consecutive daily closes on the same side.
The flow data is still incomplete: Farside’s disclosed portion of the 10/14 BTC ETF flows is −$150.5 million (mainly FBTC at −$152.7 million); IBIT has not reported. Disclosed ETH flows are −$19.7 million; ETHA has not reported.
What to watch next:
1. Whether the 10/15 daily close (10/16 08:00 UTC+8 / 00:00 UTC) will make it two consecutive closes below 82,787
2. Whether the recent low at 80,393 holds; a close back above 84,972 would be needed to leave this range
3. Whether 10/14 flows turn out to be inflows or outflows once IBIT / ETHA figures are complete
$BTC $ETH｜Sources: BLS September CPI, Binance BTCUSDT / ETHUSDT candlesticks, Farside (10/14 data incomplete)｜Not investment advice