Yesterday’s US September CPI print coming in at 3.7% clearly made the market feel heavier. Bond yields and the DXY rose, and risk assets immediately came under pressure.
Based on this morning’s Binance snapshot, $BTC did pull back to the $81.4k area (-2.41%), but altcoins took the harder hit. $ETH (-3.9%), $SUI, $DOGE, and even $ZEC plunged by around 8% or more.
Two interesting things stood out in the BTC Futures data as the price tested the lower end of its 24-hour range:
The price fell, but OI rose (~93.1k BTC). This suggests selling pressure is still being driven by new position-building/aggressive shorts, rather than being purely a flush or ordinary deleveraging.
The funding rate moved into negative territory (-0.0041%), while the account ratio still skewed heavily Long (63.9%). In this situation, the risk of a further long squeeze remains wide open if support at $81,400 fails to hold.
For the short-term outlook:
If $81,400 breaks without a clear buying response, the psychological $80,000 level becomes the next test.
For a recovery, the minimum requirement is a reclaim of $83,000–$83,500, accompanied by OI starting to flatten or decline.
For now, there’s no confirmation that sellers are exhausted. Trying to catch a falling knife in altcoins that have simply “fallen a lot” (like $ZEC ) is still very risky as long as $BTC hasn’t established a clear price base. Best to wait and see until the market shows a valid response around support.
#CPIWatch
Based on this morning’s Binance snapshot, $BTC did pull back to the $81.4k area (-2.41%), but altcoins took the harder hit. $ETH (-3.9%), $SUI, $DOGE, and even $ZEC plunged by around 8% or more.
Two interesting things stood out in the BTC Futures data as the price tested the lower end of its 24-hour range:
The price fell, but OI rose (~93.1k BTC). This suggests selling pressure is still being driven by new position-building/aggressive shorts, rather than being purely a flush or ordinary deleveraging.
The funding rate moved into negative territory (-0.0041%), while the account ratio still skewed heavily Long (63.9%). In this situation, the risk of a further long squeeze remains wide open if support at $81,400 fails to hold.
For the short-term outlook:
If $81,400 breaks without a clear buying response, the psychological $80,000 level becomes the next test.
For a recovery, the minimum requirement is a reclaim of $83,000–$83,500, accompanied by OI starting to flatten or decline.
For now, there’s no confirmation that sellers are exhausted. Trying to catch a falling knife in altcoins that have simply “fallen a lot” (like $ZEC ) is still very risky as long as $BTC hasn’t established a clear price base. Best to wait and see until the market shows a valid response around support.
#CPIWatch