Bitcoin Falls Below $82,000: Fallout from a Hotter-Than-Expected CPI.
After overnight CPI came in hotter than expected (3.7% vs. 3.6% expected; core CPI rose 0.3% month over month vs. 0.2% expected), Bitcoin fell from $83,800 to $81,662, down 1.99% over 24 hours.
Key data:
- Odds of an October rate hike rose from 22% to 37% (CME FedWatch)
- 10-year Treasury yields climbed back above 5.30%
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $175.6 million in net inflows on October 13 (the largest single-day inflow this month), but are still down $278.4 million net for October overall
- Open interest: $52.77 billion, down 2.57% over 7 days; funding rate: 0.0030%/8h, well below the 0.03% crowding threshold
- $47.37 million in liquidations over 24 hours, 85.1% of them long positions
Technical outlook: $81,000 is key support, with the 4-hour 200 EMA providing support near that level. $84,000 is resistance; price has failed to break through it 7 times.
My take: The hotter-than-expected CPI report dashed expectations of no rate hike in October, and the market is repricing. But ETF investors are buying the dip ($175.6 million in single-day inflows), and derivatives markets aren’t crowded. In the short term, watch support at $81,000; if it breaks, $80,000 is next.
$BTC
Personal opinion only; this is not investment advice.
After overnight CPI came in hotter than expected (3.7% vs. 3.6% expected; core CPI rose 0.3% month over month vs. 0.2% expected), Bitcoin fell from $83,800 to $81,662, down 1.99% over 24 hours.
Key data:
- Odds of an October rate hike rose from 22% to 37% (CME FedWatch)
- 10-year Treasury yields climbed back above 5.30%
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $175.6 million in net inflows on October 13 (the largest single-day inflow this month), but are still down $278.4 million net for October overall
- Open interest: $52.77 billion, down 2.57% over 7 days; funding rate: 0.0030%/8h, well below the 0.03% crowding threshold
- $47.37 million in liquidations over 24 hours, 85.1% of them long positions
Technical outlook: $81,000 is key support, with the 4-hour 200 EMA providing support near that level. $84,000 is resistance; price has failed to break through it 7 times.
My take: The hotter-than-expected CPI report dashed expectations of no rate hike in October, and the market is repricing. But ETF investors are buying the dip ($175.6 million in single-day inflows), and derivatives markets aren’t crowded. In the short term, watch support at $81,000; if it breaks, $80,000 is next.
$BTC
Personal opinion only; this is not investment advice.