Galaxy Research said on October 15 that decision markets and impact markets should be grouped under conditional markets. According to ChainCatcher, these markets settle only if a specific outcome occurs, while decision markets also settle clear and binding outcomes.

The firm said conditional markets differ from prediction markets because they are not limited to binary, all-or-nothing structures and trade real assets and their prices rather than synthetic probability contracts. Their byproduct is the impact of events on asset value, not the probability of the event itself.

Galaxy Research described prediction markets as the zero version of event-driven finance and said there has been extensive experimentation over the past 18 months. It added that new infrastructure is pushing the sector beyond prediction markets.

The report cited Umia, an ownership token issuance platform for EVM-compatible chains that launched in September, as an example of the expansion. Umia extends decision markets from the binary pass-or-fail markets that were mainly limited to Solana and first scaled by MetaDAO, to multi-outcome markets that can price proposal parameters.

Galaxy Research said a stablecoin or DAO token deposit can be converted into positions covering each outcome, with final settlement only for the winning market. It said 22 DAO treasuries governed entirely by decision markets hold a combined $50.5 million, with MetaDAO accounting for 21 of them and 78% of the assets. Stablecoins make up $35.8 million of that total, and MetaDAO accounts for 82%.

The report also said MetaDAO’s market-based governance DAO issuance platform raised funds for the first time about 11 months ago. Umia expands the issuable chain set to Solana or EVM, which together account for about 92% of TVL by chain type.