$WAL The $0.06 invalidation level from my previous post has been hit. I’ll own this trade—but shorts are even more crowded now.
In my previous post on $WAL , I wrote that my view would be invalidated if the hourly close fell back below $0.06. The price is now $0.058, and the 07:00–08:00 hourly candle closed at $0.05788—a clear break. I’ll own this trade; no making excuses.
But the interesting thing is that after winning the first round, the shorts have put themselves in an even more crowded position. Derivatives data shows the funding rate has dropped to -0.26%/8h, meaning shorts are paying real money; the long/short account ratio has fallen to 0.48, with roughly twice as many short accounts as long accounts. These two figures confirm each other: lots of people are shorting $WAL right now, and they’re all paying for it.
What about the price? It hasn’t collapsed. It dropped as low as $0.05565, then bounced straight back from the lower wick, and is now holding steady around $0.058. It’s still up 51.9% over 24 hours, with nearly $600 million in futures trading volume—real money behind that volume, not wash trading.
So my view has changed: $0.06 has turned from support into resistance, and short-term bulls should take a step back. But I wouldn’t chase shorts at this level—the short side is already so crowded that chasing it offers terrible risk-reward. $0.0556 is the dividing line between bulls and bears: if it holds, short covering could fuel a second bounce; if an hourly close breaks below $0.055, the trend is damaged, so I’d step aside and reassess around $0.05.
Entry: Take a small position around $0.056–0.058 to trade a bounce. The bet is on short covering, not a trend reversal. Invalidation: If an hourly candle closes below $0.055, exit immediately.
In my previous post on $WAL , I wrote that my view would be invalidated if the hourly close fell back below $0.06. The price is now $0.058, and the 07:00–08:00 hourly candle closed at $0.05788—a clear break. I’ll own this trade; no making excuses.
But the interesting thing is that after winning the first round, the shorts have put themselves in an even more crowded position. Derivatives data shows the funding rate has dropped to -0.26%/8h, meaning shorts are paying real money; the long/short account ratio has fallen to 0.48, with roughly twice as many short accounts as long accounts. These two figures confirm each other: lots of people are shorting $WAL right now, and they’re all paying for it.
What about the price? It hasn’t collapsed. It dropped as low as $0.05565, then bounced straight back from the lower wick, and is now holding steady around $0.058. It’s still up 51.9% over 24 hours, with nearly $600 million in futures trading volume—real money behind that volume, not wash trading.
So my view has changed: $0.06 has turned from support into resistance, and short-term bulls should take a step back. But I wouldn’t chase shorts at this level—the short side is already so crowded that chasing it offers terrible risk-reward. $0.0556 is the dividing line between bulls and bears: if it holds, short covering could fuel a second bounce; if an hourly close breaks below $0.055, the trend is damaged, so I’d step aside and reassess around $0.05.
Entry: Take a small position around $0.056–0.058 to trade a bounce. The bet is on short covering, not a trend reversal. Invalidation: If an hourly candle closes below $0.055, exit immediately.