Honestly, $TSM 's revenue had already "spoiled" the earnings, beating expectations, and the stock got hammered from 486 all the way down to 430… But I actually think this afternoon's earnings report could be a chance to get in 🤔
Let's start with what we already know: September revenue was NT$511.9 billion, bringing Q3 to around NT$1.49 trillion, or about US$46.7 billion—above the high end of the company's US$44.6–45.8 billion guidance.
So what really matters today isn't revenue, but these things 👇
Gross margin: Company guidance is 65–67%; the 2nm ramp-up is expected to eat into it by 3–4 percentage points. My guess is around 67%, near the top of the range.
EPS: The market expects about US$4.45 per ADR and net income of around NT$746 billion. My guess is roughly US$4.60.
CoWoS and 2nm: They’ll probably keep saying demand exceeds supply. I'm more interested in how long 2nm will weigh on gross margins.
Capital expenditure: US$60–64 billion this year. My guess is it’ll come in near the high end, with hints that 2027 will be even higher.
Scenario 1: Gross margin ≥67% + Q4 guidance around US$50 billion → First reclaim 455, then take another look at the previous high of 487.
Scenario 2: Gross margin falls to 65% or below → 420 won't hold, and the bears will use the opportunity to drive it down further.
$TSM perpetual futures are now around 424, with support at 420 and resistance at 455.
I'm bullish. This sell-off looks more like panic over AI capital spending than a problem with TSMC itself. Also keeping an eye on $NVDA —if TSMC gives strong guidance, it could catch its breath too 😂
⚠️Just my personal ramblings; this is not investment advice.
#台积电财报 #美股 #AIchips
Let's start with what we already know: September revenue was NT$511.9 billion, bringing Q3 to around NT$1.49 trillion, or about US$46.7 billion—above the high end of the company's US$44.6–45.8 billion guidance.
So what really matters today isn't revenue, but these things 👇
Gross margin: Company guidance is 65–67%; the 2nm ramp-up is expected to eat into it by 3–4 percentage points. My guess is around 67%, near the top of the range.
EPS: The market expects about US$4.45 per ADR and net income of around NT$746 billion. My guess is roughly US$4.60.
CoWoS and 2nm: They’ll probably keep saying demand exceeds supply. I'm more interested in how long 2nm will weigh on gross margins.
Capital expenditure: US$60–64 billion this year. My guess is it’ll come in near the high end, with hints that 2027 will be even higher.
Scenario 1: Gross margin ≥67% + Q4 guidance around US$50 billion → First reclaim 455, then take another look at the previous high of 487.
Scenario 2: Gross margin falls to 65% or below → 420 won't hold, and the bears will use the opportunity to drive it down further.
$TSM perpetual futures are now around 424, with support at 420 and resistance at 455.
I'm bullish. This sell-off looks more like panic over AI capital spending than a problem with TSMC itself. Also keeping an eye on $NVDA —if TSMC gives strong guidance, it could catch its breath too 😂
⚠️Just my personal ramblings; this is not investment advice.
#台积电财报 #美股 #AIchips