๐ TradFi Daily | 10.15
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๐บ๐ธ U.S. Stocks
โช๏ธ ๐ TSMC is about to report key earnings, seen as an important test of whether the AI narrative can continue. Meanwhile, Anthropicโs Q3 revenue surged to $16.8 billion and it turned profitable for the first time, showing that AI sector fundamentals remain strong. However, Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick said global annual AI spending could reach $1 trillion, sparking more debate about the balance between massive investment and returns.
โช๏ธ โ ๏ธ Macroeconomic signals are tightening: the probability of a Fed rate hike in October rose to 33.2%, and San Francisco Fed President Daly said inflation risks remain elevated and the outlook is still uncertain. CreditSights also warned that a wave of corporate bond issuance is putting pressure on the bond market, fueling concerns about marginally tighter liquidity.
๐ฅ Gold & Commodities
โช๏ธ Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust remained at 1,054.196 tonnes, with no significant change. This suggests institutions still favor keeping gold hedges amid uncertainty over both inflation and interest rates, though the short-term direction remains unclear.
๐ข๏ธ Oil
โช๏ธ Oil prices continued to rise. The conflicts involving Russia and the Middle East have increased the supply-side risk premium, lifting both WTI and Brent crude futures. The energy sector is one of the few asset classes benefiting from a geopolitical premium.
๐ Correlation with BTC
The rising probability of a rate hike, combined with pressure on the bond market, points to marginally tighter liquidity expectations, weighing on the valuations of risk assets such as $BTC . However, stable gold holdings and rising oil prices also suggest inflation remains sticky, leading some macro investors to continue viewing BTC as โdigital goldโ for hedging. On-chain, VanEckโs withdrawal of its Lido staking ETF application for $ETH is a slight negative, while the Alpenglow upgrade to the $SOL ecosystem is set to launch on October 21 and Circle has minted an additional 250 million USDC on Solana, indicating that on-chain activity remains robust. In the short term, the main market focus will likely remain on the Fedโs interest rate path. #ๅฎ่ง #BTC
The above is for personal opinion-sharing purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please manage your positions at your own discretion.
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๐บ๐ธ U.S. Stocks
โช๏ธ ๐ TSMC is about to report key earnings, seen as an important test of whether the AI narrative can continue. Meanwhile, Anthropicโs Q3 revenue surged to $16.8 billion and it turned profitable for the first time, showing that AI sector fundamentals remain strong. However, Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick said global annual AI spending could reach $1 trillion, sparking more debate about the balance between massive investment and returns.
โช๏ธ โ ๏ธ Macroeconomic signals are tightening: the probability of a Fed rate hike in October rose to 33.2%, and San Francisco Fed President Daly said inflation risks remain elevated and the outlook is still uncertain. CreditSights also warned that a wave of corporate bond issuance is putting pressure on the bond market, fueling concerns about marginally tighter liquidity.
๐ฅ Gold & Commodities
โช๏ธ Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust remained at 1,054.196 tonnes, with no significant change. This suggests institutions still favor keeping gold hedges amid uncertainty over both inflation and interest rates, though the short-term direction remains unclear.
๐ข๏ธ Oil
โช๏ธ Oil prices continued to rise. The conflicts involving Russia and the Middle East have increased the supply-side risk premium, lifting both WTI and Brent crude futures. The energy sector is one of the few asset classes benefiting from a geopolitical premium.
๐ Correlation with BTC
The rising probability of a rate hike, combined with pressure on the bond market, points to marginally tighter liquidity expectations, weighing on the valuations of risk assets such as $BTC . However, stable gold holdings and rising oil prices also suggest inflation remains sticky, leading some macro investors to continue viewing BTC as โdigital goldโ for hedging. On-chain, VanEckโs withdrawal of its Lido staking ETF application for $ETH is a slight negative, while the Alpenglow upgrade to the $SOL ecosystem is set to launch on October 21 and Circle has minted an additional 250 million USDC on Solana, indicating that on-chain activity remains robust. In the short term, the main market focus will likely remain on the Fedโs interest rate path. #ๅฎ่ง #BTC
The above is for personal opinion-sharing purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please manage your positions at your own discretion.