🧵 1/6 Domestic News
🏬 The 140th Canton Fair opens; Li Qiang attends and delivers keynote speech
• September goods trade reached the 5 trillion yuan mark, up 27.5% year over year
• The central bank conducted 700 billion yuan in outright reverse repo operations
• M2 rose 7.2% year over year at the end of September; outstanding social financing grew 7.1%
#中国 #宏观经济 #CentralBank
🌍 2/6 International · Trade & Technology
📮 Vietnam has submitted the final text of its trade agreement to the United States
• Trump will attend the ASEAN summit in November
• The US plans to charge ships calling at Spanish ports and restrict olive oil imports
• Anthropic: Q3 revenue rose to $16.8 billion, with the company turning a profit
• Ukraine says Starlink services have been restricted; Musk and the US government blame each other
• BHP and labor unions at Chile's Escondida copper mine reached an agreement, averting a strike
🛢️ 3/6 Energy
⛽ Tight diesel supplies may persist into next year
• IEA warns global oil supply could fall by 5.8 million barrels per day in 2026
🎯 4/6 Inflation & the Fed
🏦 Fed Beige Book: High oil prices are affecting 12 districts; businesses expect prices to keep rising
• US September CPI rose 3.7% year over year (forecast: 3.6%)
• Core CPI rose 2.6% year over year (forecast: 2.5%)
• Odds of a Fed rate hike in October rose to 33%
• Goolsbee: September inflation data were disappointing; more data are needed before deciding on a rate hike
• Bowman: Inflation remains above target; there is no rush to adjust interest rates
• Daly: Further rate hikes are possible, but not urgent
• Trump: The Fed is deliberately keeping interest rates too high
📉 5/6 Overnight Markets
📉 Nasdaq closed down 1.8%; spot gold fell as much as 2%
• Silver plunged more than 6%
• Treasury yields erased all their gains after surging
🔥 6/6 Middle East Situation
🛥️ US forces destroyed a vessel linked to Iran in the Gulf of Oman; it had been monitoring a US warship
• Yemen's government is seeking US intelligence and training support and is not currently negotiating with the Houthis
• Iran's parliamentary speaker: Fight and negotiate with the US at the same time to force it to accept Iran's demands
• Houthi forces say they hit a Saudi “Typhoon” fighter jet
🏬 The 140th Canton Fair opens; Li Qiang attends and delivers keynote speech
• September goods trade reached the 5 trillion yuan mark, up 27.5% year over year
• The central bank conducted 700 billion yuan in outright reverse repo operations
• M2 rose 7.2% year over year at the end of September; outstanding social financing grew 7.1%
#中国 #宏观经济 #CentralBank
🌍 2/6 International · Trade & Technology
📮 Vietnam has submitted the final text of its trade agreement to the United States
• Trump will attend the ASEAN summit in November
• The US plans to charge ships calling at Spanish ports and restrict olive oil imports
• Anthropic: Q3 revenue rose to $16.8 billion, with the company turning a profit
• Ukraine says Starlink services have been restricted; Musk and the US government blame each other
• BHP and labor unions at Chile's Escondida copper mine reached an agreement, averting a strike
🛢️ 3/6 Energy
⛽ Tight diesel supplies may persist into next year
• IEA warns global oil supply could fall by 5.8 million barrels per day in 2026
🎯 4/6 Inflation & the Fed
🏦 Fed Beige Book: High oil prices are affecting 12 districts; businesses expect prices to keep rising
• US September CPI rose 3.7% year over year (forecast: 3.6%)
• Core CPI rose 2.6% year over year (forecast: 2.5%)
• Odds of a Fed rate hike in October rose to 33%
• Goolsbee: September inflation data were disappointing; more data are needed before deciding on a rate hike
• Bowman: Inflation remains above target; there is no rush to adjust interest rates
• Daly: Further rate hikes are possible, but not urgent
• Trump: The Fed is deliberately keeping interest rates too high
📉 5/6 Overnight Markets
📉 Nasdaq closed down 1.8%; spot gold fell as much as 2%
• Silver plunged more than 6%
• Treasury yields erased all their gains after surging
🔥 6/6 Middle East Situation
🛥️ US forces destroyed a vessel linked to Iran in the Gulf of Oman; it had been monitoring a US warship
• Yemen's government is seeking US intelligence and training support and is not currently negotiating with the Houthis
• Iran's parliamentary speaker: Fight and negotiate with the US at the same time to force it to accept Iran's demands
• Houthi forces say they hit a Saudi “Typhoon” fighter jet