According to Jin10, U.S. Treasury prices rebounded sharply overnight, reversing an earlier selloff triggered by the latest hotter inflation data, and yields on most maturities turned lower. U.S. official data showed September CPI rose 3.7% year over year, above the market forecast of 3.6%. After the release, the 2-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level in more than two weeks before easing back along with longer-dated yields. Traders' bets on a Fed rate hike in October rose from 22% before the data to about 40%, then slipped to 33% by the time of reporting. TD Securities U.S. rates strategist Brooks said the shift in hike odds and bond yields was likely closely tied to recent dovish remarks from several officials, including New York Fed President John C. Williams and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson. Brooks said a 50/50 chance of an October hike now seemed reasonable, as the data may be sending one signal while the Fed is sending another.
