$ETH is falling twice as fast as $BTC on 14/10, and the ETH/BTC ratio has dropped to 0.02955 on Binance, below every daily close since 10/08.
The idea circulating since yesterday: U.S. spot ETH ETFs are back in the green (+$24.8M on 13/10, according to Farside), so ETH should be ready to take the lead again. Today’s figures say otherwise.
Since 00:00 UTC (Binance spot, snapshot at ~21:00 UTC), ETH is down 3.2% to around $2,418, while BTC is down 1.6% to around $81,800. The ratio was 0.03269 on 12/09, down about 9.6% in a month. And that +$24.8M is small compared with the -$720.4M across the eight sessions from 01/10 to 12/10, with BlackRock’s ETHA at zero on 13/10.
On Binance Futures’ ETHUSDT perpetual, open interest rose from around 2.27M ETH at 12:00 UTC to 2.38M ETH at 20:00 UTC (+4.5%), while the price slipped from ~$2,505 to ~$2,430. Funding is near zero. My interpretation, not a fact: positions are being opened into the drop, more likely shorts or hedges than longs capitulating.
What’s weighing on it: after the CPI, the probability of a Fed hike on 28/10 climbed to around 47–54%, according to CME FedWatch figures cited by CoinMarketCap and Cointelegraph (about 22% the previous day). The PPI comes out Thursday, 15/10, and ETH is taking the stress first.
Two possible paths. If the PPI is reassuring and ETH ETFs continue to see inflows, a return to 0.030 becomes plausible, with those shorts providing fuel. If rates remain sticky, the ~0.029 zone around the late-July and early-August lows comes back into focus, with ETH below $2,400 as the weak point.
What would you need to see first before betting on ETH over BTC: three consecutive sessions of ETF inflows, a ratio above 0.030, or clearly negative funding?
#Ethereum #ETHBTC
The idea circulating since yesterday: U.S. spot ETH ETFs are back in the green (+$24.8M on 13/10, according to Farside), so ETH should be ready to take the lead again. Today’s figures say otherwise.
Since 00:00 UTC (Binance spot, snapshot at ~21:00 UTC), ETH is down 3.2% to around $2,418, while BTC is down 1.6% to around $81,800. The ratio was 0.03269 on 12/09, down about 9.6% in a month. And that +$24.8M is small compared with the -$720.4M across the eight sessions from 01/10 to 12/10, with BlackRock’s ETHA at zero on 13/10.
On Binance Futures’ ETHUSDT perpetual, open interest rose from around 2.27M ETH at 12:00 UTC to 2.38M ETH at 20:00 UTC (+4.5%), while the price slipped from ~$2,505 to ~$2,430. Funding is near zero. My interpretation, not a fact: positions are being opened into the drop, more likely shorts or hedges than longs capitulating.
What’s weighing on it: after the CPI, the probability of a Fed hike on 28/10 climbed to around 47–54%, according to CME FedWatch figures cited by CoinMarketCap and Cointelegraph (about 22% the previous day). The PPI comes out Thursday, 15/10, and ETH is taking the stress first.
Two possible paths. If the PPI is reassuring and ETH ETFs continue to see inflows, a return to 0.030 becomes plausible, with those shorts providing fuel. If rates remain sticky, the ~0.029 zone around the late-July and early-August lows comes back into focus, with ETH below $2,400 as the weak point.
What would you need to see first before betting on ETH over BTC: three consecutive sessions of ETF inflows, a ratio above 0.030, or clearly negative funding?
#Ethereum #ETHBTC