🚨 CPI just gave the Treasury market a reason to worry...
#cpiwatch
September's US inflation report is out.
Headline CPI rose 0.6% monthly and 3.7% annually. Core CPI also came in hotter than expected: 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually.
Gasoline prices surged 9.1%, accounting for more than half of the monthly CPI increase.
But here's the detail that matters: shelter and services prices also climbed. This wasn't exclusively an energy shock.
The bond market reacted.
The US 2-year Treasury yield jumped 7.2 basis points to 4.87%, while market-implied odds of an October Fed rate hike rose from roughly 20% to 41%.
Meanwhile, Brent remains near $106 as Middle East tensions threaten oil supplies.
My interpretation: Treasuries face a tougher test if inflation stays sticky, because higher yields mean lower prices for existing bonds.
But I wouldn't blindly chase oil higher. Its next move depends on actual supply disruptions, not just today's CPI report.
My approach: watch whether Treasury yields sustain their rise and whether Brent's supply-risk premium persists. Those signals matter more than one dramatic candle.
Does this inflation report mark the beginning of another leg higher in yields, or will the energy shock prove temporary?
Not financial advice.
$BZ $CL $TMF
#CPIWatch #EthereumDropsBelow$2500 #StriveBuys3311BTCFor$280M #GoogleReleasesGemini4ArgonAIModel
#cpiwatch
September's US inflation report is out.
Headline CPI rose 0.6% monthly and 3.7% annually. Core CPI also came in hotter than expected: 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually.
Gasoline prices surged 9.1%, accounting for more than half of the monthly CPI increase.
But here's the detail that matters: shelter and services prices also climbed. This wasn't exclusively an energy shock.
The bond market reacted.
The US 2-year Treasury yield jumped 7.2 basis points to 4.87%, while market-implied odds of an October Fed rate hike rose from roughly 20% to 41%.
Meanwhile, Brent remains near $106 as Middle East tensions threaten oil supplies.
My interpretation: Treasuries face a tougher test if inflation stays sticky, because higher yields mean lower prices for existing bonds.
But I wouldn't blindly chase oil higher. Its next move depends on actual supply disruptions, not just today's CPI report.
My approach: watch whether Treasury yields sustain their rise and whether Brent's supply-risk premium persists. Those signals matter more than one dramatic candle.
Does this inflation report mark the beginning of another leg higher in yields, or will the energy shock prove temporary?
Not financial advice.
$BZ $CL $TMF
#CPIWatch #EthereumDropsBelow$2500 #StriveBuys3311BTCFor$280M #GoogleReleasesGemini4ArgonAIModel