Bitcoin’s next move: I think it’ll head toward 80k first. Whether 80k holds will determine if we consolidate or drop to the next level.
Let’s move the stop on our 84,000 short to breakeven. If you’re heavily positioned, you can take partial profits.
There’s something a little unusual about this 80k level.
I looked into that rally in September: Bitcoin climbed all the way up from 76k, and on September 21 it surged straight from 80k to 85k in one candle, with barely a pause.
It was a fast, satisfying rally, but it left one problem behind: almost nobody bought between 76k and 80k.
If nobody bought at those prices, nobody’s there to defend them. Usually, when the price falls to a level where people have a cost basis, they step in to support it. But there’s nothing below 80k, so if it breaks, the price could slide straight to around 76k—the point where that September rally began.
The same goes for the upside. 84k used to be support; when the price fell at the end of September, it was caught there several times. Now it’s the other way around: we’ve tried to break through several times over the past few days and failed, so it’s become resistance.
Now look at the bigger picture. Core inflation came in hotter than expected tonight, and the odds of a rate hike at the end of the month jumped from a little over 20% to over 40%. Treasury yields surged to 5.3%. With two weeks until the October 28 meeting, the market will keep guessing whether they’ll hike or not, making it hard for Bitcoin to sustain a one-way rally.
So I see two possible scenarios.
If 80k holds, we’ll move back and forth between 80k and 84k while we wait for the Fed’s answer on the 28th.
If 80k breaks, there’s nothing below to catch the price, so the target is straight down to around 76k.
I’ve set the second target for my short at 80.2k, right around this level. I’ll take some profit when it gets there, then see whether 80k breaks with the rest.
For the stop above: Treasury yields come back down and Bitcoin gets back above 84k—the level I told everyone to buy at this morning.
Until we see that, treat any bounce as a small one for now. #9月cpi来袭原油美债走势如何
$BTC
Let’s move the stop on our 84,000 short to breakeven. If you’re heavily positioned, you can take partial profits.
There’s something a little unusual about this 80k level.
I looked into that rally in September: Bitcoin climbed all the way up from 76k, and on September 21 it surged straight from 80k to 85k in one candle, with barely a pause.
It was a fast, satisfying rally, but it left one problem behind: almost nobody bought between 76k and 80k.
If nobody bought at those prices, nobody’s there to defend them. Usually, when the price falls to a level where people have a cost basis, they step in to support it. But there’s nothing below 80k, so if it breaks, the price could slide straight to around 76k—the point where that September rally began.
The same goes for the upside. 84k used to be support; when the price fell at the end of September, it was caught there several times. Now it’s the other way around: we’ve tried to break through several times over the past few days and failed, so it’s become resistance.
Now look at the bigger picture. Core inflation came in hotter than expected tonight, and the odds of a rate hike at the end of the month jumped from a little over 20% to over 40%. Treasury yields surged to 5.3%. With two weeks until the October 28 meeting, the market will keep guessing whether they’ll hike or not, making it hard for Bitcoin to sustain a one-way rally.
So I see two possible scenarios.
If 80k holds, we’ll move back and forth between 80k and 84k while we wait for the Fed’s answer on the 28th.
If 80k breaks, there’s nothing below to catch the price, so the target is straight down to around 76k.
I’ve set the second target for my short at 80.2k, right around this level. I’ll take some profit when it gets there, then see whether 80k breaks with the rest.
For the stop above: Treasury yields come back down and Bitcoin gets back above 84k—the level I told everyone to buy at this morning.
Until we see that, treat any bounce as a small one for now. #9月cpi来袭原油美债走势如何
$BTC