From 10,000 to 550,000, then back to zero—what can we learn from that? ☹️
When I saw this guy, I felt like we were in the same boat. I started trading crypto at 17, moved on to futures at 20, and then started trading crypto again this year. I’m 26 now. My account grew from a few tens of thousands to a peak of 1.8 million in 2023, then went to zero. Last year, I turned a few tens of thousands into over 400,000, only to hit zero again. I’ve probably been liquidated more than ten times—I’ve lost count. I’ve lost 600,000 or 700,000 in a day, and I’ve also made 300,000 or 400,000 in a day. But the moment my account hit zero, it felt like everything was over.
Since I entered the workforce, I’ve barely had a regular job. But this year, I had no choice but to work in a factory for two months to save up some capital and start again. A couple of months ago, I read a passage that really opened my eyes. I’ll put it at the end as a reminder to myself. So I’ve decided to start exploring a trading system that won’t let one trade wipe me out again. When I traded futures, I couldn’t control for black swan events—especially over the past couple of years, with Trump starting wars and markets suddenly gapping down the next day. But with crypto futures, I can manage the risk. I only trade Bitcoin, and even if something like what happened on October 11 last year happens again, I can take the loss by setting a stop-loss. I can also use isolated margin so the rest of my funds aren’t affected. I limit each stop-loss to no more than 4% of my total capital. If you calculate the losses using compounding, it would take 57 consecutive 4% losses to turn 10,000 into 1,000. The odds of that are actually very low—after all, you’d have to hit your stop-loss 57 times in a row.
The most profitable trade of your life may be the greatest curse you’ll ever face.
Because that one time, you broke every rule. You went in heavily, didn’t use a stop-loss, and charged in while everyone else was running for the exits. And then you won. You made a lot of money.
You looked at that steeply rising equity curve and thought it was skill. You commemorated that day as if it were your birthday.
But it was your epitaph. Every trade you made afterward was an attempt to recreate that one. After every loss, you refused to walk away because you were waiting for that moment to happen again. Every time, you wanted to go all in because of that one trade.
You mistook luck for your family’s ancestral tomb and went to bow before it every year at Qingming.
Backtesting is like digging up a grave. It will show you that the trade you placed on an altar was just a bone tossed to you by probability. And for that bone, you gave up the rest of your life.
When I saw this guy, I felt like we were in the same boat. I started trading crypto at 17, moved on to futures at 20, and then started trading crypto again this year. I’m 26 now. My account grew from a few tens of thousands to a peak of 1.8 million in 2023, then went to zero. Last year, I turned a few tens of thousands into over 400,000, only to hit zero again. I’ve probably been liquidated more than ten times—I’ve lost count. I’ve lost 600,000 or 700,000 in a day, and I’ve also made 300,000 or 400,000 in a day. But the moment my account hit zero, it felt like everything was over.
Since I entered the workforce, I’ve barely had a regular job. But this year, I had no choice but to work in a factory for two months to save up some capital and start again. A couple of months ago, I read a passage that really opened my eyes. I’ll put it at the end as a reminder to myself. So I’ve decided to start exploring a trading system that won’t let one trade wipe me out again. When I traded futures, I couldn’t control for black swan events—especially over the past couple of years, with Trump starting wars and markets suddenly gapping down the next day. But with crypto futures, I can manage the risk. I only trade Bitcoin, and even if something like what happened on October 11 last year happens again, I can take the loss by setting a stop-loss. I can also use isolated margin so the rest of my funds aren’t affected. I limit each stop-loss to no more than 4% of my total capital. If you calculate the losses using compounding, it would take 57 consecutive 4% losses to turn 10,000 into 1,000. The odds of that are actually very low—after all, you’d have to hit your stop-loss 57 times in a row.
The most profitable trade of your life may be the greatest curse you’ll ever face.
Because that one time, you broke every rule. You went in heavily, didn’t use a stop-loss, and charged in while everyone else was running for the exits. And then you won. You made a lot of money.
You looked at that steeply rising equity curve and thought it was skill. You commemorated that day as if it were your birthday.
But it was your epitaph. Every trade you made afterward was an attempt to recreate that one. After every loss, you refused to walk away because you were waiting for that moment to happen again. Every time, you wanted to go all in because of that one trade.
You mistook luck for your family’s ancestral tomb and went to bow before it every year at Qingming.
Backtesting is like digging up a grave. It will show you that the trade you placed on an altar was just a bone tossed to you by probability. And for that bone, you gave up the rest of your life.