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Bitcoin is currently at 83.6K. Long-term holders have an average cost basis of 48.6K, giving them a 72% profit cushion; prices would need to fall 42% before they would be at an average loss.
Bitcoin prices pulled back last week, narrowing profits, but this was not panic selling. Holders who bought at higher prices are gradually selling, while those who bought at lower prices are continuing to hold. The share of Bitcoin held long-term has hit a record 80%, and the average cost basis has edged down.
Holdings have been gradually distributed since August. Bitcoin has decoupled from the South Korean stock market, and spot demand has weakened, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw impressive inflows in the third quarter. The market is waiting for U.S. inflation data, which could drive price movements.
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