Shorted at 84,000. The first target of 82,000 has been hit, and it’s now at 81,900. This trade has netted over 2,100 points.
This trade worked not because I’m good at drawing charts, but because I figured out one thing: Bitcoin couldn’t break above 84,000 because money was too expensive.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield had been holding above 5.2%. You could earn more than 5% a year just by leaving your money alone. Every time Bitcoin touched 84,000, anyone thinking of chasing it higher would run the numbers and decide the risk wasn’t worth it. So there were no buyers to step in. Bitcoin tried to break through 84,000 four times, and got knocked back down every time.
I placed a short at 84,000, betting that this calculation wouldn’t change anytime soon.
Tonight’s CPI report confirmed the logic. Core inflation jumped from 2.4% to 2.6%, higher than expected, suggesting that rising oil prices are starting to feed into things like airfares. The odds of a rate hike by the end of the month suddenly doubled, from 22% to 44%, and Treasury yields surged straight to 5.3%.
Money is even more expensive now, so even fewer people are willing to chase Bitcoin higher. Right after the data came out, it first spiked to 83,800, then plunged below 82,000.
I’m still holding the remaining position, with my stop moved to the entry price of 84,000. Worst case, it’ll all have been for nothing. The second target is 80,200.
As long as Treasury yields stay above 5.3%, it’ll be hard for Bitcoin to move higher. I’ll consider going long again when yields come back down. #9月cpi来袭原油美债走势如何
$BTC
This trade worked not because I’m good at drawing charts, but because I figured out one thing: Bitcoin couldn’t break above 84,000 because money was too expensive.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield had been holding above 5.2%. You could earn more than 5% a year just by leaving your money alone. Every time Bitcoin touched 84,000, anyone thinking of chasing it higher would run the numbers and decide the risk wasn’t worth it. So there were no buyers to step in. Bitcoin tried to break through 84,000 four times, and got knocked back down every time.
I placed a short at 84,000, betting that this calculation wouldn’t change anytime soon.
Tonight’s CPI report confirmed the logic. Core inflation jumped from 2.4% to 2.6%, higher than expected, suggesting that rising oil prices are starting to feed into things like airfares. The odds of a rate hike by the end of the month suddenly doubled, from 22% to 44%, and Treasury yields surged straight to 5.3%.
Money is even more expensive now, so even fewer people are willing to chase Bitcoin higher. Right after the data came out, it first spiked to 83,800, then plunged below 82,000.
I’m still holding the remaining position, with my stop moved to the entry price of 84,000. Worst case, it’ll all have been for nothing. The second target is 80,200.
As long as Treasury yields stay above 5.3%, it’ll be hard for Bitcoin to move higher. I’ll consider going long again when yields come back down. #9月cpi来袭原油美债走势如何
$BTC