$SNDK From now through Friday’s U.S. market close, I’m still bearish on SNDK.
The reason is simple. First, SNDK has already risen a lot. The market has priced in many of the positives, such as rising NAND prices and AI storage demand. At this point, continued strength in the industry isn’t enough; results need to keep exceeding expectations for the stock to move higher.
Second, U.S. CPI came in hotter than expected, bringing interest rate pressure back. High-growth tech stocks like SNDK, which have already rallied sharply and carry high valuations, are the first ones investors are likely to cut exposure to.
Third, although CXMT mainly affects DRAM, it has prompted the entire memory sector to reassess competition and valuations. In the short term, investors may be more inclined to take profits.
So I expect the following path: first, a test of $1,400. If $1,400 fails to hold, watch $1,370; if weakness continues, watch $1,345–$1,360.
If buyers step in around $1,400, the stock could first rebound to $1,450–$1,485. But as long as it can’t hold above $1,485, I’ll still view it as a rebound within a downtrend.
I’ll only abandon my bearish view for this move if it regains and holds above $1,485 and breaks through $1,539.
The industry hasn’t deteriorated, but given current valuations and market positioning, the stock is more likely to move lower in the short term.
The reason is simple. First, SNDK has already risen a lot. The market has priced in many of the positives, such as rising NAND prices and AI storage demand. At this point, continued strength in the industry isn’t enough; results need to keep exceeding expectations for the stock to move higher.
Second, U.S. CPI came in hotter than expected, bringing interest rate pressure back. High-growth tech stocks like SNDK, which have already rallied sharply and carry high valuations, are the first ones investors are likely to cut exposure to.
Third, although CXMT mainly affects DRAM, it has prompted the entire memory sector to reassess competition and valuations. In the short term, investors may be more inclined to take profits.
So I expect the following path: first, a test of $1,400. If $1,400 fails to hold, watch $1,370; if weakness continues, watch $1,345–$1,360.
If buyers step in around $1,400, the stock could first rebound to $1,450–$1,485. But as long as it can’t hold above $1,485, I’ll still view it as a rebound within a downtrend.
I’ll only abandon my bearish view for this move if it regains and holds above $1,485 and breaks through $1,539.
The industry hasn’t deteriorated, but given current valuations and market positioning, the stock is more likely to move lower in the short term.