September CPI points to more rate hikes, and the timing of the next hike—October vs. December—is becoming uncertain. Macroeconomic pressure is gradually building. What’s next for US stocks, bonds, and #Bitcoin?
First, the bond market: after the data was released, 2Y, 10Y, and 30Y yields all rose in sync, then pulled back slightly. The 2Y yield rose the most. This initial sharp move suggests the market had priced in a hawkish CPI reading tonight, raising expectations for rate hikes and inflation. The subsequent pullback was a technical retracement after the short-term data shock.
Going forward, keep an eye on 10Y and 30Y yields. If they continue to fall, that would suggest the Fed is more hawkish, but long-term inflation remains under control. If they keep rising, be alert to the possibility that the market is pricing in a higher long-term neutral rate and more persistent inflation concerns. In that case, risk assets would face even more pressure.
As for US stocks, so far, earnings from major US banks have been encouraging, suggesting that AI’s capital supply side is in good shape. ASML’s strong earnings also point to a healthy, stable narrative for the AI sector. These factors should have supported a rally, but tonight’s bearish CPI data offset those positives and even put significant pressure on the market. The main reason is that, against the macroeconomic backdrop, long-term yields are elevated, amplifying the negative impact.
Next, the only major event left this week is TSMC’s earnings report on Thursday. Although expectations are positive, the report can only confirm the stability and health of the AI narrative. Reversing the trend this week will be very difficult; macroeconomic pressure is in the driver’s seat.
As for #Bitcoin, it stayed within the 4-hour MA120–MA200 trend range during the first two days of this week, waiting for a direction. After tonight’s data release, it broke clearly below MA200 support (82,400). If it continues to fall and any rebound fails, watch for the pullback to extend to the daily-chart timeframe! #9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何
First, the bond market: after the data was released, 2Y, 10Y, and 30Y yields all rose in sync, then pulled back slightly. The 2Y yield rose the most. This initial sharp move suggests the market had priced in a hawkish CPI reading tonight, raising expectations for rate hikes and inflation. The subsequent pullback was a technical retracement after the short-term data shock.
Going forward, keep an eye on 10Y and 30Y yields. If they continue to fall, that would suggest the Fed is more hawkish, but long-term inflation remains under control. If they keep rising, be alert to the possibility that the market is pricing in a higher long-term neutral rate and more persistent inflation concerns. In that case, risk assets would face even more pressure.
As for US stocks, so far, earnings from major US banks have been encouraging, suggesting that AI’s capital supply side is in good shape. ASML’s strong earnings also point to a healthy, stable narrative for the AI sector. These factors should have supported a rally, but tonight’s bearish CPI data offset those positives and even put significant pressure on the market. The main reason is that, against the macroeconomic backdrop, long-term yields are elevated, amplifying the negative impact.
Next, the only major event left this week is TSMC’s earnings report on Thursday. Although expectations are positive, the report can only confirm the stability and health of the AI narrative. Reversing the trend this week will be very difficult; macroeconomic pressure is in the driver’s seat.
As for #Bitcoin, it stayed within the 4-hour MA120–MA200 trend range during the first two days of this week, waiting for a direction. After tonight’s data release, it broke clearly below MA200 support (82,400). If it continues to fall and any rebound fails, watch for the pullback to extend to the daily-chart timeframe! #9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何