【The whale has left, while retail traders are still crowded into longs】
Everyone thought $ETH dropping to the 2,400s was shaking out retail traders. But what we’re seeing on-chain is that the first to exit were the big players who had already made a profit.
According to Lookonchain, an OTC whale sold its last 9,996 ETH today, fully liquidating its entire 52,000 ETH position.
Its average purchase price was about $2,162 and its average sale price about $2,632, for a profit of roughly $24.5 million. Most of the ETH had already been sold on September 24.
Now look at the futures market: ETH was trading at 2,451 on Binance at 22:02. The long-to-short account ratio rose from 2.58 24 hours ago to 2.90, with more accounts going long as the price falls.
My take: In the short term, ETH doesn’t lack buying confidence so much as fresh capital. With longs this crowded, a rebound near 2,600 is more likely to run into selling pressure from traders looking to break even.
My view is invalidated if ETH climbs back above 2,600 on strong volume, which would show that fresh capital has absorbed the whale’s holdings. I’ll admit I was wrong. On the other hand, if it breaks below the 7-day low of 2,406, those crowded longs could become the next fuel for the drop.
Which do you think it will hit first: 2,406 or 2,600?
Sources: Lookonchain, U.Today, Binance futures data
$ETH #以太坊 #Whale
#BinanceSquare
⚠️ The above is a summary of information and personal opinion, not investment advice. DYOR.
Everyone thought $ETH dropping to the 2,400s was shaking out retail traders. But what we’re seeing on-chain is that the first to exit were the big players who had already made a profit.
According to Lookonchain, an OTC whale sold its last 9,996 ETH today, fully liquidating its entire 52,000 ETH position.
Its average purchase price was about $2,162 and its average sale price about $2,632, for a profit of roughly $24.5 million. Most of the ETH had already been sold on September 24.
Now look at the futures market: ETH was trading at 2,451 on Binance at 22:02. The long-to-short account ratio rose from 2.58 24 hours ago to 2.90, with more accounts going long as the price falls.
My take: In the short term, ETH doesn’t lack buying confidence so much as fresh capital. With longs this crowded, a rebound near 2,600 is more likely to run into selling pressure from traders looking to break even.
My view is invalidated if ETH climbs back above 2,600 on strong volume, which would show that fresh capital has absorbed the whale’s holdings. I’ll admit I was wrong. On the other hand, if it breaks below the 7-day low of 2,406, those crowded longs could become the next fuel for the drop.
Which do you think it will hit first: 2,406 or 2,600?
Sources: Lookonchain, U.Today, Binance futures data
$ETH #以太坊 #Whale
#BinanceSquare
⚠️ The above is a summary of information and personal opinion, not investment advice. DYOR.