October rate hike odds just doubled overnight after this morning's CPI number dropped.
The market was drifting toward complacency. Now it's scrambling to reprice.
This is what happens when people confuse a pause with a pivot. The Fed hasn't changed its mind. It's just waiting for the data to tell it what to do next.
Rate expectations drive everything—mortgage costs, business loans, currency strength, the dollar's appeal to foreign investors. When hike odds jump like this, it ripples through exchange rates and funding costs globally.
Don't get caught flat-footed assuming the tightening cycle is over just because there was a meeting without a move.
The market was drifting toward complacency. Now it's scrambling to reprice.
This is what happens when people confuse a pause with a pivot. The Fed hasn't changed its mind. It's just waiting for the data to tell it what to do next.
Rate expectations drive everything—mortgage costs, business loans, currency strength, the dollar's appeal to foreign investors. When hike odds jump like this, it ripples through exchange rates and funding costs globally.
Don't get caught flat-footed assuming the tightening cycle is over just because there was a meeting without a move.