CPI is out, and the data is hawkish! Annual inflation at 3.7%, hotter than expected—will we be able to sleep tonight?
September U.S. CPI has just been released (official BLS data, 8:30 AM ET):
• Headline CPI rose 3.7% year over year, above the 3.6% forecast
• Core CPI rose 2.6% year over year (forecast: 2.5%) and 0.3% month over month (forecast: 0.2%)
• Gasoline prices surged 9.1% in a single month, while energy prices rose 20.4% year over year—oil prices were the main driver of this inflation uptick
$BTC The first reaction: price briefly plunged from around 84,000 to 82,606, and is now at 82,942 (24h: -0.468%). Trading volume on the 1-hour candle when CPI was released was several times higher than usual, with bears making the first move.
CME FedWatch (5 minutes after the CPI release): the probability of a rate hike on October 28 is 21.6% (78.4% for holding rates); the probability of at least one more hike by December is 94.9%. In plain English: rates will most likely stay put in October, but another hike in December is almost a sure thing.
The playbook:
• 82,700 (around the post-CPI low) is the first line of defense. If it holds → look for a rebound toward resistance at 84,000
• If 82,700 breaks → look for support at the round-number level of 82,000
• If the rebound can’t even reach 84,000 → expect weak, choppy action near the highs; don’t chase
My stance: cautious and slightly bearish in the short term. Core inflation came in hotter across the board, and December rate-hike pricing is at 94.9%—liquidity won’t recover anytime soon.
What would change my mind: if $BTC holds above 84,500 on strong volume, or subsequent data disproves the persistence of inflation, I’ll admit I was wrong and turn bullish.
#BTC #CPI #FederalReserve
⚠️Just my personal ramblings—not investment advice.
September U.S. CPI has just been released (official BLS data, 8:30 AM ET):
• Headline CPI rose 3.7% year over year, above the 3.6% forecast
• Core CPI rose 2.6% year over year (forecast: 2.5%) and 0.3% month over month (forecast: 0.2%)
• Gasoline prices surged 9.1% in a single month, while energy prices rose 20.4% year over year—oil prices were the main driver of this inflation uptick
$BTC The first reaction: price briefly plunged from around 84,000 to 82,606, and is now at 82,942 (24h: -0.468%). Trading volume on the 1-hour candle when CPI was released was several times higher than usual, with bears making the first move.
CME FedWatch (5 minutes after the CPI release): the probability of a rate hike on October 28 is 21.6% (78.4% for holding rates); the probability of at least one more hike by December is 94.9%. In plain English: rates will most likely stay put in October, but another hike in December is almost a sure thing.
The playbook:
• 82,700 (around the post-CPI low) is the first line of defense. If it holds → look for a rebound toward resistance at 84,000
• If 82,700 breaks → look for support at the round-number level of 82,000
• If the rebound can’t even reach 84,000 → expect weak, choppy action near the highs; don’t chase
My stance: cautious and slightly bearish in the short term. Core inflation came in hotter across the board, and December rate-hike pricing is at 94.9%—liquidity won’t recover anytime soon.
What would change my mind: if $BTC holds above 84,500 on strong volume, or subsequent data disproves the persistence of inflation, I’ll admit I was wrong and turn bullish.
#BTC #CPI #FederalReserve
⚠️Just my personal ramblings—not investment advice.