September CPI roundup: Broadly above expectations.
Release time: October 14, 20:30 (Beijing time)
Headline CPI: +0.6% month over month (in line with expectations) | 3.7% year over year (vs. 3.6% expected, 3.4% prior)
Core CPI: +0.3% month over month (vs. 0.2% expected) | 2.6% year over year (vs. 2.5% expected, 2.4% prior)
Where figures exceeded expectations: Headline CPI was 0.1 percentage point higher year over year; core CPI was 0.1 percentage point higher both month over month and year over year.
Market pricing (before the release): Around a 25% probability of a rate hike on October 28, and an 85% probability of another hike before December.
Assessment: The 0.3% month-over-month core CPI figure is key—it shows inflation isn’t coming only from energy. The probability of an October rate hike will move closer to 50%. This puts short-term pressure on risk assets while reinforcing the long-term narrative of fiat currency depreciation.
#CPI #Macro
Personal opinion only; not investment advice.
Release time: October 14, 20:30 (Beijing time)
Headline CPI: +0.6% month over month (in line with expectations) | 3.7% year over year (vs. 3.6% expected, 3.4% prior)
Core CPI: +0.3% month over month (vs. 0.2% expected) | 2.6% year over year (vs. 2.5% expected, 2.4% prior)
Where figures exceeded expectations: Headline CPI was 0.1 percentage point higher year over year; core CPI was 0.1 percentage point higher both month over month and year over year.
Market pricing (before the release): Around a 25% probability of a rate hike on October 28, and an 85% probability of another hike before December.
Assessment: The 0.3% month-over-month core CPI figure is key—it shows inflation isn’t coming only from energy. The probability of an October rate hike will move closer to 50%. This puts short-term pressure on risk assets while reinforcing the long-term narrative of fiat currency depreciation.
#CPI #Macro
Personal opinion only; not investment advice.