September CPI has been released, and the inflation data came in above expectations. Core inflation also saw a modest rebound.
This means September’s inflation issue was not simply a misleadingly hawkish reading driven by energy prices. The good news is that inflation has not spiraled completely out of control. As for the impact on rate-hike probabilities, this won’t change the likelihood of no rate hike in October, but it will increase the probability of a hike in December.
According to CME data, the probability of a December rate hike rose from 70% before the release to 71%. It has not yet reached 80%, but it is now in the initial pricing range.
With international energy prices continuing to rebound and rise, inflationary pressures are increasing in the short term. This is clearly negative for risk markets, which are likely to come under pressure.
Next, let’s take a closer look at the details of this inflation report! #9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何
This means September’s inflation issue was not simply a misleadingly hawkish reading driven by energy prices. The good news is that inflation has not spiraled completely out of control. As for the impact on rate-hike probabilities, this won’t change the likelihood of no rate hike in October, but it will increase the probability of a hike in December.
According to CME data, the probability of a December rate hike rose from 70% before the release to 71%. It has not yet reached 80%, but it is now in the initial pricing range.
With international energy prices continuing to rebound and rise, inflationary pressures are increasing in the short term. This is clearly negative for risk markets, which are likely to come under pressure.
Next, let’s take a closer look at the details of this inflation report! #9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何