Core inflation just woke up.
September's 3-month annualized core CPI jumped to 3.41% — nearly double the prior reading of 1.97%.
This isn't some rounding error or noise in the data. This is acceleration. And it matters because the Fed watches core inflation like a hawk. It strips out food and energy volatility to show underlying price pressures.
When that number doubles in a single month, it raises uncomfortable questions: Is disinflation stalling? Are services staying sticky? Did we celebrate too early?
Markets had priced in a victory lap. Rate cuts were coming. Soft landing confirmed. But inflation doesn't move in straight lines, and neither does monetary policy.
This is the kind of print that makes central bankers pause. It doesn't mean we're going back to 2022, but it does mean the path forward just got messier.
Remember: inflation is always and everywhere a lagged phenomenon. What we're seeing now reflects decisions made months ago — and what happens next depends on decisions being made right now.
Stay humble. Stay patient. The last mile is always the hardest.
September's 3-month annualized core CPI jumped to 3.41% — nearly double the prior reading of 1.97%.
This isn't some rounding error or noise in the data. This is acceleration. And it matters because the Fed watches core inflation like a hawk. It strips out food and energy volatility to show underlying price pressures.
When that number doubles in a single month, it raises uncomfortable questions: Is disinflation stalling? Are services staying sticky? Did we celebrate too early?
Markets had priced in a victory lap. Rate cuts were coming. Soft landing confirmed. But inflation doesn't move in straight lines, and neither does monetary policy.
This is the kind of print that makes central bankers pause. It doesn't mean we're going back to 2022, but it does mean the path forward just got messier.
Remember: inflation is always and everywhere a lagged phenomenon. What we're seeing now reflects decisions made months ago — and what happens next depends on decisions being made right now.
Stay humble. Stay patient. The last mile is always the hardest.