$BTC Yesterday morning, the low of that hourly candle hit 81,034, but it closed at 81,443. The next hour, it closed straight up at 82,442. A lot of people got shaken out between those two candles.
If you only watch the lows, you’re more likely to get caught out. You see 81,034 and assume support has broken. But support isn’t defined by whether price touched it—it’s whether price got back above it afterward. Those two hourly candles yesterday made it crystal clear: the first dipped to 81,034 and closed at 81,443; the second climbed from 81,432 and closed at 82,442. Both candles closed above 81,432.
So I break a valid breakdown into three conditions: an hourly candle closes below support, two candles in a row close below it, and a retest fails to reclaim it. It only counts as a break when all three conditions are met. If only the first is met, it’s a test. If none are met, it’s just a wick.
The biggest benefit of this approach is that it takes emotion out of the decision-making. When prices are jumping around intraday, you don’t need to make a call. Wait for the hourly candle to close, then wait for the next one. That half hour you save yourself from trading is often when people make their worst mistakes.
The same goes the other way. Yesterday at 4 p.m., price peaked at 84,168, but that candle closed at 83,587—it never held above that level. Wicks above and below are two sides of the same coin.
Guys, base your judgment on candle closes. Your win rate won’t improve overnight, but at least your mistakes will be easier to review 🍌
#交易纪律 #MarketStructure
If you only watch the lows, you’re more likely to get caught out. You see 81,034 and assume support has broken. But support isn’t defined by whether price touched it—it’s whether price got back above it afterward. Those two hourly candles yesterday made it crystal clear: the first dipped to 81,034 and closed at 81,443; the second climbed from 81,432 and closed at 82,442. Both candles closed above 81,432.
So I break a valid breakdown into three conditions: an hourly candle closes below support, two candles in a row close below it, and a retest fails to reclaim it. It only counts as a break when all three conditions are met. If only the first is met, it’s a test. If none are met, it’s just a wick.
The biggest benefit of this approach is that it takes emotion out of the decision-making. When prices are jumping around intraday, you don’t need to make a call. Wait for the hourly candle to close, then wait for the next one. That half hour you save yourself from trading is often when people make their worst mistakes.
The same goes the other way. Yesterday at 4 p.m., price peaked at 84,168, but that candle closed at 83,587—it never held above that level. Wicks above and below are two sides of the same coin.
Guys, base your judgment on candle closes. Your win rate won’t improve overnight, but at least your mistakes will be easier to review 🍌
#交易纪律 #MarketStructure