NEAR at $5—are you itching to trade?
CPI comes out tonight in an hour and a half. Long open interest has just fallen from its all-time high of $1.92 billion, and liquidation levels at $4.96 and $4.89 are right beneath us. Are you trading, or gambling with your life?
First: This surge was driven by leverage, not spot buying.
NEAR futures open interest was only $300–450 million in July and August. It started exploding in mid-September and hit an all-time high of $1.92 billion on October 12. The price fell from $6 back to $5, but open interest dropped only 20%. It’s still at $1.56 billion.
The real risk: the first long liquidation levels are at $4.96 and $4.89—just 1–2% below $5. If CPI comes in hot, those positions will be hit first.
Second: The ETF and Intents catalysts are already priced in.
Bitwise’s spot NEAR ETF, ticker NRR, launched on NYSE Arca on September 29—the first of its kind in the US. It saw $58 million in inflows in its first week.
Sounds exciting? But with NEAR’s market cap at $6.6 billion, $58 million isn’t enough to fuel a second wave unless inflows accelerate further.
Wintermute noted that capital was rotating from highly liquid DeFi and large-cap coins into AI. That week, only 11 of 66 large-cap altcoins closed higher, with a median return of -3.7%. NEAR was one of the winners. And winners got in around that $6 spike.
Third: Technically, the weekly chart is bullish, while the daily chart shows distribution.
Weekly RSI is 68, and the moving averages are aligned bullishly. The bigger picture hasn’t broken down.
Daily RSI is 55, the MACD histogram has turned negative, and price is below the 9-day moving average. The short-term chart is working off this round of leverage.
Trend breakdown: If the daily candle closes below $4.30, look to the 50-day moving average at $4.00.
At $5, neither bulls nor bears have an edge. Better opportunities are a pullback to $4.80 or a confirmed close above $5.25.
Trading plan
Long:
If a 4-hour candle closes above $5.25, wait for a retest that holds $5.10 before entering. Stop-loss: $4.88. First target: $5.55; second target: $5.90. If the daily candle hasn’t reclaimed $5.60, take profit at $5.55.
A better entry zone is $4.80–$4.85, provided there’s a lower wick and price closes back above $4.95. Stop-loss: $4.60.
For a deeper pullback, place a limit order at $4.35–$4.50, with a stop-loss at $4.15. That’s the buy zone if this rally is still intact.
Short:
If a rebound to $5.40–$5.60 fails and a 4-hour candle can’t close back above that zone, enter short. Stop-loss: $5.70. Target: $4.90, then $4.64.
If a 4-hour candle closes below $4.88 and a rebound fails at $5.00, enter short. Stop-loss: $5.20. Target: $4.64, with an extension to $4.35. Don’t chase shorts while $4.90 is holding.
If the daily candle closes below $4.30, the rally that began in September is over. Hold shorts or stay out.
If the daily candle closes above $5.60, the pullback is over. Close all shorts—the next stop is $6.03.
CPI comes out tonight in an hour and a half. Long open interest has just fallen from its all-time high of $1.92 billion, and liquidation levels at $4.96 and $4.89 are right beneath us. Are you trading, or gambling with your life?
First: This surge was driven by leverage, not spot buying.
NEAR futures open interest was only $300–450 million in July and August. It started exploding in mid-September and hit an all-time high of $1.92 billion on October 12. The price fell from $6 back to $5, but open interest dropped only 20%. It’s still at $1.56 billion.
The real risk: the first long liquidation levels are at $4.96 and $4.89—just 1–2% below $5. If CPI comes in hot, those positions will be hit first.
Second: The ETF and Intents catalysts are already priced in.
Bitwise’s spot NEAR ETF, ticker NRR, launched on NYSE Arca on September 29—the first of its kind in the US. It saw $58 million in inflows in its first week.
Sounds exciting? But with NEAR’s market cap at $6.6 billion, $58 million isn’t enough to fuel a second wave unless inflows accelerate further.
Wintermute noted that capital was rotating from highly liquid DeFi and large-cap coins into AI. That week, only 11 of 66 large-cap altcoins closed higher, with a median return of -3.7%. NEAR was one of the winners. And winners got in around that $6 spike.
Third: Technically, the weekly chart is bullish, while the daily chart shows distribution.
Weekly RSI is 68, and the moving averages are aligned bullishly. The bigger picture hasn’t broken down.
Daily RSI is 55, the MACD histogram has turned negative, and price is below the 9-day moving average. The short-term chart is working off this round of leverage.
Trend breakdown: If the daily candle closes below $4.30, look to the 50-day moving average at $4.00.
At $5, neither bulls nor bears have an edge. Better opportunities are a pullback to $4.80 or a confirmed close above $5.25.
Trading plan
Long:
If a 4-hour candle closes above $5.25, wait for a retest that holds $5.10 before entering. Stop-loss: $4.88. First target: $5.55; second target: $5.90. If the daily candle hasn’t reclaimed $5.60, take profit at $5.55.
A better entry zone is $4.80–$4.85, provided there’s a lower wick and price closes back above $4.95. Stop-loss: $4.60.
For a deeper pullback, place a limit order at $4.35–$4.50, with a stop-loss at $4.15. That’s the buy zone if this rally is still intact.
Short:
If a rebound to $5.40–$5.60 fails and a 4-hour candle can’t close back above that zone, enter short. Stop-loss: $5.70. Target: $4.90, then $4.64.
If a 4-hour candle closes below $4.88 and a rebound fails at $5.00, enter short. Stop-loss: $5.20. Target: $4.64, with an extension to $4.35. Don’t chase shorts while $4.90 is holding.
If the daily candle closes below $4.30, the rally that began in September is over. Hold shorts or stay out.
If the daily candle closes above $5.60, the pullback is over. Close all shorts—the next stop is $6.03.