【Market Cycles Aren’t a Four-Year Alarm Clock】
Markets often move through phases such as accumulation, rising prices, distribution, and falling prices. But the boundaries only become clear in hindsight, and the phases aren’t guaranteed to repeat in the same order. Halvings affect new supply, but they can’t determine prices on their own.
To assess market conditions, consider liquidity, the cost of capital, trading structure, and leverage crowding—not just historical dates.
Rising prices don’t mean risk is lower, and falling prices don’t automatically mean assets are cheap. The value of a cycle framework is in adjusting your risk budget, not predicting the next candlestick.
#MarketCycles
Markets often move through phases such as accumulation, rising prices, distribution, and falling prices. But the boundaries only become clear in hindsight, and the phases aren’t guaranteed to repeat in the same order. Halvings affect new supply, but they can’t determine prices on their own.
To assess market conditions, consider liquidity, the cost of capital, trading structure, and leverage crowding—not just historical dates.
Rising prices don’t mean risk is lower, and falling prices don’t automatically mean assets are cheap. The value of a cycle framework is in adjusting your risk budget, not predicting the next candlestick.
#MarketCycles