Yes - today's Sept CPI is the trigger for both.
It drops *Today, Oct 15, 8:30am EDT / 5:30pm Pakistan*. It's the last big print before Fed meeting Oct 28.
What is expected:
- *Headline CPI:* +0.5% to 0.6% MoM, *3.6% YoY* vs 3.4% in August
- *Core CPI:* +0.2% MoM, *2.4%-2.5% YoY*
- Gap is all oil. Brent ~ $105.51, WTI ~ $105.63, both above $100 for first time since May.
How it shakes Treasuries:
Treasuries already sniffed it. 10Y fell to 5.19% and 30Y to 5.55% after hitting 24-year highs last week at 5.365% and 5.733%. e922
*2 scenarios:*
1. *Core 0.2% in line:* Market sticks to "Fed skips Oct, hikes Dec" narrative. Fed funds futures now price only 19% chance for Oct hike. 10Y stays under 5.30%, relief rally continues.
2. *Core 0.3%+ hot:* That moves the hike date forward. Analysts note a hot core would push Oct hike odds from ∼1 in 4 toward a coin flip, and push 10Y toward 5.5%. e92240c9
KBC note today: "Bonds are given some respite after their weeks-long decline" - but respite ends if core surprises up. 0be1
How it shakes Oil:
Oil is causing CPI, but CPI will also cause oil.
- If headline is hot (0.6%+), it raises odds of more Fed hikes. Higher rates into an oil shock = demand destruction. That is bearish for oil in 2027, even if bullish for inflation today.$BTC
- If core is soft (0.2%), Fed can wait, dollar softens, and Brent's supply-risk premium ($100+ on Middle East tanker risks) stays.
Economists are clear: "Economists expect September core CPI to rise 0.2% even as headline accelerates to 3.6%-3.7% with oil above $90" - easing case rides on core. 2d26
*Bottom line to watch at 8:30am:* Don't watch headline. Watch *Core MoM*.
- 0.2% = Treasuries bounce, oil holds $100-106
- 0.3%+ = Treasuries sell again, oil may dip on demand fears
#CPIWatch #OptimismOPRises19.98% #USEthereumETFsSee10StraightDaysOfOutflows
It drops *Today, Oct 15, 8:30am EDT / 5:30pm Pakistan*. It's the last big print before Fed meeting Oct 28.
What is expected:
- *Headline CPI:* +0.5% to 0.6% MoM, *3.6% YoY* vs 3.4% in August
- *Core CPI:* +0.2% MoM, *2.4%-2.5% YoY*
- Gap is all oil. Brent ~ $105.51, WTI ~ $105.63, both above $100 for first time since May.
How it shakes Treasuries:
Treasuries already sniffed it. 10Y fell to 5.19% and 30Y to 5.55% after hitting 24-year highs last week at 5.365% and 5.733%. e922
*2 scenarios:*
1. *Core 0.2% in line:* Market sticks to "Fed skips Oct, hikes Dec" narrative. Fed funds futures now price only 19% chance for Oct hike. 10Y stays under 5.30%, relief rally continues.
2. *Core 0.3%+ hot:* That moves the hike date forward. Analysts note a hot core would push Oct hike odds from ∼1 in 4 toward a coin flip, and push 10Y toward 5.5%. e92240c9
KBC note today: "Bonds are given some respite after their weeks-long decline" - but respite ends if core surprises up. 0be1
How it shakes Oil:
Oil is causing CPI, but CPI will also cause oil.
- If headline is hot (0.6%+), it raises odds of more Fed hikes. Higher rates into an oil shock = demand destruction. That is bearish for oil in 2027, even if bullish for inflation today.$BTC
- If core is soft (0.2%), Fed can wait, dollar softens, and Brent's supply-risk premium ($100+ on Middle East tanker risks) stays.
Economists are clear: "Economists expect September core CPI to rise 0.2% even as headline accelerates to 3.6%-3.7% with oil above $90" - easing case rides on core. 2d26
*Bottom line to watch at 8:30am:* Don't watch headline. Watch *Core MoM*.
- 0.2% = Treasuries bounce, oil holds $100-106
- 0.3%+ = Treasuries sell again, oil may dip on demand fears
#CPIWatch #OptimismOPRises19.98% #USEthereumETFsSee10StraightDaysOfOutflows