Tonight at 20:30, the data will set the tone.
Bitcoin is back at the $84,000 mark. During the Asian session, it briefly touched around $83,900 and is now trading sideways near $83,400. The entire market is holding its breath ahead of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September CPI release at 20:30 Beijing time tonight.
This morning’s gains came courtesy of Williams. The New York Fed president said there would be no need for another rate hike in 2027. His remarks weighed on the dollar, sparked a rebound in Asian stocks, helped chip stocks stem their losses, and lifted risk appetite. But he added that another hike later this year could still be appropriate—leaving the suspense hanging until tonight.
Expectations for tonight’s data are far from benign. CPI is forecast to rise 3.6%–3.7% year over year, up from 3.4% in August, and 0.6% month over month. Core CPI is expected to increase 0.2% month over month and 2.4%–2.5% year over year, based on a synthesis of Reuters polls and other reports. Energy and food prices are the main drivers of the year-over-year increase. The real question is whether core inflation shows that price increases are spreading to other categories.
Two scenarios will play out tonight. If the data meets or comes in below expectations, the dollar and Treasury yields could retreat, while institutional funds flow back into spot Bitcoin ETFs, sending $BTC straight for the previous high of $87,000. If the data exceeds expectations, Huobi HTX analyst Cloud warns that the $81,000 floor could be tested first. He points out that the ISM Services Prices Paid Index rose to 74.0 in September, its highest level since July 2022, while the University of Michigan’s one-year inflation expectations climbed back to 4.7%. The simultaneous rise in price components and expectations suggests a meaningful chance of an upside surprise.
$84,000 was never a ceiling; it was a hurdle. The supply zone that built up above $84,000 yesterday has already shown just how heavy the selling pressure can be. If tonight’s data is mild enough to rule out another rate hike this year, a retest of $85,000 would be a natural move. If it comes in hot, bears will also have Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s industrial production data to work with.
Don’t forget: the Fed’s Beige Book is also due at 8:30 tonight, and incoming Fed Chair Warsh speaks in Thailand tomorrow. It’s a week packed with macro data, so keep positions light and avoid placing large trades ahead of the releases.
This is not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.
#BitcoinSurpasses$84K
#BTC #CPI
Bitcoin is back at the $84,000 mark. During the Asian session, it briefly touched around $83,900 and is now trading sideways near $83,400. The entire market is holding its breath ahead of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September CPI release at 20:30 Beijing time tonight.
This morning’s gains came courtesy of Williams. The New York Fed president said there would be no need for another rate hike in 2027. His remarks weighed on the dollar, sparked a rebound in Asian stocks, helped chip stocks stem their losses, and lifted risk appetite. But he added that another hike later this year could still be appropriate—leaving the suspense hanging until tonight.
Expectations for tonight’s data are far from benign. CPI is forecast to rise 3.6%–3.7% year over year, up from 3.4% in August, and 0.6% month over month. Core CPI is expected to increase 0.2% month over month and 2.4%–2.5% year over year, based on a synthesis of Reuters polls and other reports. Energy and food prices are the main drivers of the year-over-year increase. The real question is whether core inflation shows that price increases are spreading to other categories.
Two scenarios will play out tonight. If the data meets or comes in below expectations, the dollar and Treasury yields could retreat, while institutional funds flow back into spot Bitcoin ETFs, sending $BTC straight for the previous high of $87,000. If the data exceeds expectations, Huobi HTX analyst Cloud warns that the $81,000 floor could be tested first. He points out that the ISM Services Prices Paid Index rose to 74.0 in September, its highest level since July 2022, while the University of Michigan’s one-year inflation expectations climbed back to 4.7%. The simultaneous rise in price components and expectations suggests a meaningful chance of an upside surprise.
$84,000 was never a ceiling; it was a hurdle. The supply zone that built up above $84,000 yesterday has already shown just how heavy the selling pressure can be. If tonight’s data is mild enough to rule out another rate hike this year, a retest of $85,000 would be a natural move. If it comes in hot, bears will also have Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s industrial production data to work with.
Don’t forget: the Fed’s Beige Book is also due at 8:30 tonight, and incoming Fed Chair Warsh speaks in Thailand tomorrow. It’s a week packed with macro data, so keep positions light and avoid placing large trades ahead of the releases.
This is not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.
#BitcoinSurpasses$84K
#BTC #CPI