The more deeply negative the rate gets, the more the price should be supported by shorts’ funding costs—but $BLUR is doing the exact opposite right now. The 4-hour funding rate has reached -0.6496%, meaning shorts are paying longs, with about 239 minutes until the next settlement. The mark price is 0.01085 and the current price is 0.01094, very close together, yet the price is still down 12.27% over 24 hours, with $39.23 million in trading volume—so it’s not as if nobody is trading. Looking at the funding rate alongside these two prices, the rate suggests shorts are crowded, while the decline suggests that crowding hasn’t yet been punished in the price. If the rate doesn’t start to ease before settlement, I’ll treat it as a holding cost, not as a sign that a short squeeze is imminent.
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