BTW at $2.60—would you still chase it?
It went from $0.009 to $2.75, a 300x gain. It surged 48% in 24 hours, liquidating $3.3 million in shorts. But just before you FOMO in—the withdrawal window opens today at 18:30, and CPI hits tonight at 21:30. Is this one last celebration, or a trap set by the market makers?
First: the rally was driven by short covering, not a buildup of new longs.
This move was pushed higher by short liquidations, not by sustained buying from new longs adding to their positions.
The fuel from short liquidations has already burned once.
Funding rates aren’t low enough to force a short squeeze, or high enough to force longs to close.
If open interest keeps falling while the price holds steady near the highs, that’s distribution.
Second: spot supply is on the way.
On October 2, around 101.6 million tokens were unlocked (about 1% of total supply), yet the price later made new highs—the market absorbed that supply. But you can’t extrapolate linearly and assume “every unlock means a price drop.”
The next unlock is on November 2: another roughly 101.6 million tokens. At $2.60, that’s about $260 million, or 3%–3.5% of the circulating market cap. It’s not happening today, but at this price, each unlock has a greater dollar impact.
Investors’ cost basis is around $0.0027—a paper gain of several hundred times at $2.60.
Third: the narrative is still there, but the valuation has already priced it in.
Supply: 10 billion total, with about 27%–29% in circulation (around 2.7–2.9 billion).
At $2.60, that implies a circulating market cap of about $7 billion and a fully diluted valuation of about $26 billion.
Public funding totals around $5 million.
That FDV is already in the range of a top-tier Layer 1 blockchain.
But the market has yet to see matching proof in product revenue or TVL.
Low circulating supply can push the price up, but that doesn’t mean the 73% of tokens still locked up are worth the same amount in dollars.
Trading plan
Long:
Aggressive: Re-enter if $2.48–$2.52 holds; stop-loss at $2.38; first target $2.70, second target $2.75.
Only consider following with a small position if the 1-hour candle closes above $2.75 and open interest starts expanding again. Put the stop below $2.62, with targets at $2.90–$3.00. If it can’t reclaim that level, it’s a false breakout—exit immediately.
Short:
Only consider a light position fading the top if the 1-hour chart leaves an upper wick around $2.70–$2.75 while open interest continues to fall. Stop-loss at $2.82 (above the previous high); target $2.40, then $2.25. Shorts have already been liquidated once today, and getting run over while trying to call a top in a parabolic move is par for the course. Stop-loss: a high-volume close above $2.75
It went from $0.009 to $2.75, a 300x gain. It surged 48% in 24 hours, liquidating $3.3 million in shorts. But just before you FOMO in—the withdrawal window opens today at 18:30, and CPI hits tonight at 21:30. Is this one last celebration, or a trap set by the market makers?
First: the rally was driven by short covering, not a buildup of new longs.
This move was pushed higher by short liquidations, not by sustained buying from new longs adding to their positions.
The fuel from short liquidations has already burned once.
Funding rates aren’t low enough to force a short squeeze, or high enough to force longs to close.
If open interest keeps falling while the price holds steady near the highs, that’s distribution.
Second: spot supply is on the way.
On October 2, around 101.6 million tokens were unlocked (about 1% of total supply), yet the price later made new highs—the market absorbed that supply. But you can’t extrapolate linearly and assume “every unlock means a price drop.”
The next unlock is on November 2: another roughly 101.6 million tokens. At $2.60, that’s about $260 million, or 3%–3.5% of the circulating market cap. It’s not happening today, but at this price, each unlock has a greater dollar impact.
Investors’ cost basis is around $0.0027—a paper gain of several hundred times at $2.60.
Third: the narrative is still there, but the valuation has already priced it in.
Supply: 10 billion total, with about 27%–29% in circulation (around 2.7–2.9 billion).
At $2.60, that implies a circulating market cap of about $7 billion and a fully diluted valuation of about $26 billion.
Public funding totals around $5 million.
That FDV is already in the range of a top-tier Layer 1 blockchain.
But the market has yet to see matching proof in product revenue or TVL.
Low circulating supply can push the price up, but that doesn’t mean the 73% of tokens still locked up are worth the same amount in dollars.
Trading plan
Long:
Aggressive: Re-enter if $2.48–$2.52 holds; stop-loss at $2.38; first target $2.70, second target $2.75.
Only consider following with a small position if the 1-hour candle closes above $2.75 and open interest starts expanding again. Put the stop below $2.62, with targets at $2.90–$3.00. If it can’t reclaim that level, it’s a false breakout—exit immediately.
Short:
Only consider a light position fading the top if the 1-hour chart leaves an upper wick around $2.70–$2.75 while open interest continues to fall. Stop-loss at $2.82 (above the previous high); target $2.40, then $2.25. Shorts have already been liquidated once today, and getting run over while trying to call a top in a parabolic move is par for the course. Stop-loss: a high-volume close above $2.75